The Atlanta Braves close down their four-game NL East showdown with the New York Mets at SunTrust Park. New York opened the series with back-to-back wins, but Atlanta fired back yesterday and now aims to split the set. Aces Julio Teheran (ATL) and Jacob deGrom (NYM) are the hurlers for this contest with the Mets Sportsbook as a -156 favorite and the Braves coming back at +136 and the total Sportsbook at 8.5 runs.
Standout Stats
- After a three-game sweep against Philadelphia to begin the season, Atlanta has settled down and gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games. Meanwhile, New York has been fairly inconsistent recently, sporting a record of 4-4 SU and ATS in its last eight games, after starting the year 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS. New York won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-5 but Atlanta earned an 11-7 triumph yesterday.
- With the Mets’ pitching staff, the totals have been set quite low most games but their rotation hasn’t lived up to expectations and the total has gone OVER in 10 of their first 14 games. Meanwhile, oddsmakers have done a great job gauging the Braves games as the total has split 6-6-2 for the OVER/UNDER in their first 14 contests. The OVER/UNDER has gone 1-1-1 through the first three games of this set.
- Jacob deGrom is coming off his worst start since September of 2017 as he looks to get back in the win column tonight. The Florida native hadn’t allowed a run through his first 13 innings of the season but was rocked for six runs on eight hits (three homers) lasting just four innings in a 14-8 blowout by Minnesota five days ago. The Braves lineup have a combined 216 at-bats vs deGrom and are only hitting a modest .236 against him, but Freddie Freeman is 12-for-44 with four extra-base hits, including two home runs. In 2018, the righty was 1-2 with a 0.88 ERA in six starts vs Atlanta.
- Like deGrom, Julio Teheran is coming off his worst start since July of last year. The Colombia native was tagged for six runs on five hits (two long balls) over just five innings but Atlanta earned the 8-6 win over Colorado on April 8. The righty has been effective against the Mets batters, holding them to a measly .177 batting average over 175 combined at-bats. Teheran went 1-2 with a sparkling 1.65 ERA over five outings vs New York last year.
- Both teams have been hitting RHP well this season but have had different results as the Mets are 7-3 vs right-handed starters, while the Braves are 4-5 vs right-handed starters. Meanwhile, Atlanta ranks ninth with a .258 batting average vs righties and New York sits in the middle of the pack with a .250 batting average vs RHP.
My Best Bet for New York vs Atlanta
UNDER 8.5
A couple of aces set to face off tonight, coming off rough appearances their last time out, I anticipate a pitchers’ duel. Teheran was very effective vs the Mets last year holding a 1.65 ERA, while deGrom was even better with a 0.88 ERA against the Braves in 2018. I think under the bright lights of Sunday Night Baseball the pitchers will shine.
