Fresh off their 12th shutout loss of the season, the New York Mets will look to wake up their slumbering bats against Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals on Thursday in the opener of a four-game series. Sportsbooks opened the Nationals as -280 home favorites with a total of 8.
- The total has gone UNDER in three of the Mets’ last four games vs the Nationals (avg. combined score: 7.25).
- The Nationals are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games at home vs teams with losing records.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Mets’ last seven games vs right-handed starting pitchers.
Vargas will counter Scherzer on the hill
Scherzer (17-7, 2.53 ERA) saw his bid for a fourth Cy Young Award take a hit in his last outing on Friday, as he surrendered six runs on seven hits in a season-low four innings of a 10-5 setback to the Atlanta Braves. The 34-year-old fanned six batters to reside seven strikeouts shy of his career high of 284. Scherzer collected the win in his lone encounter with the Mets in 2018, overcoming two home runs and three runs total in seven innings of a 5-4 victory on July 12.
Jason Vargas (6-9, 6.47) improved to 4-1 in his last five trips to the mound last Thursday after permitting two runs on three hits over six innings in a 5-2 victory over Miami. The 35-year-old was fantastic in his lone appearance vs the Nationals this season, scattering three hits and striking out a season-best eight in six innings of a 3-0 win on August 24. He’ll have to watch out for Ryan Zimmerman (3-for-7) and Mark Reynolds (3-for-8), who have fared well against him in their careers.
Trends are pointing to an UNDER in this one
According to betting trends, the UNDER could be worth a look tonight. In the past four meetings between the Nationals and Mets, the UNDER is 3-1 with an average combined score of 7.3 runs. The UNDER is also 6-1 in the Mets’ last seven games vs right-handed starting pitchers. Totals bettors might be scared away due to Scherzer’s poor showing last week, but I expect him to return to his usual dominant form.
First five inning moneyline bettors might want to consider the Mets
Betting on first five inning moneylines has become a popular strategy for baseball bettors since you’re essentially wagering on how the starting pitchers will perform without having to worry about bullpens blowing the game. The Mets haven’t been much of a reliable play this season in most regards, but they have fared well in first five moneyline betting when Vargas gets the ball. New York is 5-1 in its last six games on the five-inning moneyline behind Vargas.
Why I’m on the UNDER
The pitching matchup between Scherzer and Vargas has me thinking this game is going UNDER. Scherzer will be looking to put last week’s poor showing behind him, and if Vargas can keep the momentum he’s had vs the Nats going, I expect this one to go below the total. Take the UNDER.
