NASCAR is headed to the streets of Chicago for the Grant Park 220. It's the first time the sport will see a street-course race, so we're in unprecedented waters here.
It's probably why we've got four drivers sharing "favorite" status on the oddsboard. Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson (who's favored to win the Cup Championship) are all at +700 to win the Grant Park 220.
NASCAR Grant Park 220 Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | +700 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 |
| Kyle Larson | +700 |
| Chase Elliott | +700 |
| Ross Chastain | +1100 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +1100 |
| Kyle Busch | +1400 |
| William Byron | +1600 |
| Michael McDowell | +2000 |
| Christopher Bell | +2000 |
| Chris Buescher | +2000 |
Who Should Be Favored For NASCASR's Grant Park 220?
We've never seen NASCAR on streets before so trying to figure out who might win this based on past performances isn't possible. But what if we use road course stats instead?
There's a difference between road and street courses but it's subtle. Road courses are permanent tracks that feature left and right turns while street courses are temporary with left and right turns. Driver Todd Gilliland agrees that the two are comparable.
.@ToddGilliland_ on comparing next week’s Chicago Street Course to the Indy Road Course and the strength of the @Team_FRM road course program. #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/yAma1lZNfI
— Peter Stratta (@peterstratta) June 24, 2023
Comparing road states for the four drivers at the top of the board leaves one clear favorite and it's Chase Elliott.
| Driver | Races | Average Finish | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | 17 | 13.4 | 3 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 17 | 14.2 | 1 |
| Kyle Larson | 15 | 12.9 | 4 |
| Chase Elliott | 16 | 6.5 | 4 |
Larson shares the same number of wins while Reddick is only behind by one, but Elliott's average finish is much better than both Larson and Reddick in just about the same number of races. Meaning that even when Elliott isn't winning he's still finishing well on road tracks.
Since coming back from injury, Elliott has finished no lower than 12th (not counting the two crashes that saw him finish 38th and 34th this season).
The number 9 car does well in comparable tracks and is in great form right now. Chase Elliott should be the favorite here. You might want to lock him in now while his odds still give great value at +700.
I believe Elliott gets his first win of the season here.
Who Is The Best Value Bet For NASCASR's Grant Park 220?
Chris Buescher is my value play for NASCAR's Grant Park 220. The RFK Racing driver has never won a road course, but he's done very well on average over his career on this type of track.
The number 17 car has an average finish of 10.4 over 17 road course races. Over his last seven road races, he's finished no lower than 10th.
His odds are at +2000, which is a 5% implied odds of winning. There's a lot of risk in betting on Buescher, but it's a calculated risk because he's done well in similar courses over his career.
With the unprecedented nature of this race, it might actually come down to someone an unprecedented driver like Buescher.
