Chris Buescher dominated the field at the FireKeepers Casino 400. The no.17 car was fourth in the poles and worked his way up to the lead then never gave it up. Buescher led the pack for a race-high 52 laps last weekend.
The win was his second of the season and made him 11th in the NASCAR Cup Standings. Only 12 drivers have wins on the year, leaving four playoff spots up for grabs with only three races to go in the regular season.
For the road course at Indianapolis this weekend, Martin Truex Jr, who's been at the top of the table basically the entire season, is favored at +400.
Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Odds: Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | +400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +550 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | +700 |
| Chase Elliott | +750 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| Kyle Larson | +1100 |
| Christopher Bell | +1100 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +1600 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1800 |
| Brodie Kostecki | +1800 |
Odds as of August 9
Who Are The Three Favorites for Verizon 200 At The Brickyard?
As I said, Truex has been at the top of the table for some time now. The Joe Gibbs driver sits 57 points ahead of second-ranked Denny Hamlin at 799 points. Truex, Kyle Busch and William Byron are the only drivers to have more than two wins in the season.
His recent form (last four races) has seen him begin no lower than 10th and finish that race no lower than seventh.
That combination of recent and season form is why Truex is the early favorite for this race and for the next few races on the schedule.
He's got the seventh-best average finish on road courses since February 2020. So I have no doubt he'll do well on this road course, but I wouldn't run out to bet on him winning this race.
Best Value for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Chase Elliott (+750)
There is no better active driver on road courses than Chase Elliott. Since February 2020, Elliott holds the highest rate of laps led (21%), the best average finish (6.5) and the most wins (4).
He's exceptional on road courses. And everyone knows it, even his fellow competitors.
"BREAKING NEWS: Chase Elliott's good on f****** road courses!"
— Dirty Mo Media (@DirtyMoMedia) July 31, 2023
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Elliott and crew chief James Small will be looking to this race to get the no.9 car a necessary win on the board. NASCAR's win-and-in playoff model would mean Elliott could leapfrog drivers with fewer points.
I'm going to bet Elliott for a win at +750.
Kyle Larson (+1100)
Kyle Larson is about as strong as Elliott when it comes to road courses. Since Feb 2020, the no.5 car has the second-highest rate of laps led (12.1%), the third-best average finish at 12.9 and is tied with Elliott for the wins at four.
His odds are long here because he's never won at Indianapolis. His average finish here is 16. Admittedly not great.
But you can still get Larson at plus money to finish in the top 3 (+300) or the top 5 (+150). I'm not much of a risk better unless I know (or feel) good and well I can win, so for this weekend's race I'm going to take Larson to finish in the top 5 at +150.
The potential profit is way less, but I'm more confident in this outcome.
