Last week in Loudon, Martin Truex Jr. took the NASCAR checkered flag, finally. It only took him 30 races to win in New Hampshire.
A dominating day for MTJ. Retweet to congratulate Martin Truex Jr. on his WIN at New Hampshire Motor Speedway! pic.twitter.com/Rh2oBJmA51
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) July 17, 2023
In my write-up for the Crayon 301, I believed Truex should have been the favorite based on the form he's in this season and his history on that specific track. I was right. Let's see if I can carry that form over to this week.
HighPoint.com 400: Pocono Raceway Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | +550 |
| Kyle Busch | +550 |
| Denny Hamlin | +550 |
| Kyle Larson | +750 |
| William Byron | +900 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 |
| Ross Chastain | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 |
| Christopher Bell | +1400 |
Odds as of July 18
Who Should Be Favored For The HighPoint.com 400?
We've got three drivers even at the top of the oddsboard at +550: Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Bush and Denny Hamlin. Who should be the favorite for this race?
Hamlin and Busch have both won on this track since 2020 and have led for more laps at 13.1% and 17.9%, respectively. Hamlin is fourth in the standings with a 66-point deficit to Truex while Busch is fifth with a 74-point deficit. So we're talking about two drivers at the top of the NASCAR standings for the Cup Championship playoffs now and two drivers who've done well at this specific track.
But when you look at only 2.5-mile intermediate tracks, Denny Hamlin stands out with a better average finish since Feb 2020 at 14.0. Not to mention the Joe Gibbs Racing team has two wins and eight top-five finishes at Pocono.
Don't forget that Hamlin won this race last year but was disqualified after the fact. So of the three Denny Hamlin has the best shot at winning this race in my opinion.
HighPoint.com 400: value Picks
I've established who should be the favorite out of a crowded group, but let me pull your ear on another name or two.
Kyle Larson (+750)
Larson is all the way in eighth on the NASCAR standings table, so I get why he's not being given co-favorite status like the others. But let's look at his CV on this track and ones like it since February 2020:
- Pocono Average Finish: 5.3 (1st)
- Intermediate Track Average Finish: 5.3 (1st)
- Hendricks Motor Sports Average Finish @ Pocono: 11.3 (2nd)
Outside of a crash in Atlanta, Larson has finished no lower than eighth in his last six races. And just to be clear, that crash was not his fault. Aric Almirola blew a tire and took out Kyle Larson accidentally. Larson was second with 51 laps to go on that day.
So we're looking at a driver who does well at Pocono, does well on this type of course overall, his team does well on this type of course and he's in great form. Sign me up for Kyle Larson at +750 for the HighPoint.com 400.
Chase Elliott (+1200)
I've had my eye on Chase Elliott for a while now. I'm tracking his progress week over week because while he's currently out of the playoff picture (he's 23rd in the standings), he's only 60 points back of a playoff spot.
As it stands now, assuming Elliott continues to pick up an average of 28.6 points per race, he doesn't have the runway to get into the postseason. He'd fall about 18 points short. Winning a race could make up for that.
Elliott is one of only five drivers to win on this track since 2020. That race was just last year. To be fair, he only won because Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch were disqualified after finishing first and second. But he still finished third and
I'm going to put a unit down on Elliott who's fighting for his playoff life to do well yet again at Pocono.
