The internet is good for many things like chili recipes and betting theories you can actually use on the NBA. At Odds Shark, we are betting experts, which means the strategies we present here can actually work out for your bankroll if you follow them correctly.
Betting Against Big Favorites
A general rule of thumb is to avoid big favorites, because they tend to be overvalued or inflated due to public perception. Fading is when you bet on the other side of a matchup. When a team is upwards of 10-point chalk against the NBA point spread, things can go wrong. Chalk is another way to say “favorite” and if you fade big favorites, you could end up with a nice payout on your wager if you do your research.
Always make sure to see how teams fare as big favorites and how their opponent does as a big underdog. Do they allow the other team to score enough garbage-time points to cover the spread? Do they take their foot off the gas and pull their starters early after securing a big lead?
NBA teams, especially those with their eye on the Finals – which should be all teams unless you’re the Washington Wizards – BOOM, ROASTED! – care little about style points and by how much they should win a given game. The Dallas Mavericks could be listed as 13-point favorites at home against the San Antonio Spurs, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to need those 13 points to win. They could win by five and call it a night. You have to research both teams in the matchup to know if San Antonio is going to allow for Dallas to keep a 13-point lead.
Betting The Moneyline On Small To Medium Underdogs
Moneyline bets on small to medium underdogs can be profitable over the long haul, particularly if you’re looking at home dogs. Home-court advantage is important and when you couple it with uneven matchups and situations like fatigue, the home dogs can be ripe for the betting. Even if the home underdog is coming off a road trip, there’s still the chance that they could be a safe bet at home. Make sure you look at our NBA pages for betting news, free picks, odds and everything else you need to make smart basketball bets on underdogs.
Home/Road Splits And Momentum
How an NBA team performs on the road can be vastly different to how they perform at home. These wide variations in performance from home to road are why you should consider home/road splits as a handicapping tool. Knowing which teams overperform either at home or on the road can go a long way in procuring a sizable bankroll over the season.
Another NBA gambling theory is to consider NBA runs, aka momentum swings. Is a team known for going on late-game scoring sprees? Can their opponent stop the run? Looking at how successful teams are when they get momentum can help you when betting live. In-play NBA wagering can take you beyond traditional moneyline bets if you can predict how well a team will do when they go on a momentum-shifting tear.
NBA wagering theories aren’t infallible but you can make some nice cash if you follow what we’ve laid out above.