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NBA Betting Theories

There was once a time when we counted on people of distinction for theoretical analysis, but the advent of the internet as the primary form of communication has made everyone with a laptop and a broadband connection an expert with a soapbox on which to stand.

It seems like anybody who’s ever seen a ball and a basket has a strategy for betting the NBA oddsboard, and while the following list doesn’t pretend to be exhaustive, there are some general theories worth keeping in mind. Some basic NBA betting strategy concepts:

Fade big favorites

A general rule of thumb is to avoid big favorites, because they tend to be overvalued/inflated due to public perception. On top of that, there’s just too much that can go wrong when a team is upwards of 10-point chalk against the NBA point spread.

Remember, NBA teams, especially ones with their eye on the NBA Finals, care little about style points and by how much they should win a given game. The Spurs could be listed as 13-point favorites at home against the Mavericks, but trust us, San Antonio would be happy to win by five and head home for the night.

Bet small to medium underdogs

On the other side of the ledger, betting small to medium underdogs can be profitable over the long haul. That’s especially the case when we’re talking about home dogs. Home-court advantage still matters, and when you couple it with matchups and situations like fatigue, those short pups can be ripe for the picking.

Know Home/Road Splits

Square bettors tend to think of teams as the same all the time, but from a statistical perspective there can be wide variations in performance at home as opposed to on the road. Knowing which teams overperform either at home or on the road can go a long way in procuring a sizable bankroll over the season.

Also learn to match NBA momentum swings, also known as “NBA runs,” in your handicapping. Winning more NBA sports bets is a marathon, not a sprint. And it takes training to avoid the pitfalls that can damage your bankroll.