Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Play-In Preview

NBA Play-In Tournament: 76ers vs Heat Preview, Betting Odds

After falling in five games in the NBA Finals last season, the Miami Heat will have to claw their way back into the postseason through the play-in tournament. In their path stand the Philadelphia 76ers with a healthy Joel Embiid in tow.

Let's dive into this long and storied Eastern Conference rivalry and predict how this version of 76ers vs Heat will play out. (Or in?)

Jump to Pick: 76ers vs Heat ML

Game Information

Betting Odds

Philadelphia 76ers-4.5-192O 207 (-110)
Miami Heat+4.5+160U 207 (-110)

With reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid back in the starting lineup, his Philadelphia 76ers have opened as 4.5-point favorites over the Miami Heat. The spread marks the largest of the season between these two bitter rivals.

2023-24 head-to-head History (Tied 2-2)

DateLocationFinal Score
April. 4, 2024Miami109-105 Sixers
Mar. 18, 2024Philadelphia98-91 Sixers
Feb. 14, 2024Philadelphia109-104 Heat
Dec. 25, 2023Miami119-113 Heat

These longtime Eastern Conference rivals faced off four times during the season and split the season series. Each of this year's matchups finished within seven points with veteran-laden and often shorthanded lineups engaging in rock fights to the bitter end.

Miami defeated Philadelphia in six games in the 2022 playoffs, with Jimmy Butler going bananas against his former squad.

Spread History

April. 4, 2024Sixers vs Heat (-2.5)Sixers Cover (Underdogs)
Mar. 18, 2024Sixers (-3) vs HeatSixers Cover (Favorites)
Feb. 14, 2024Sixers (-2.5) vs HeatHeat Cover (Underdogs)
Dec. 25, 2023Sixers vs Heat (-2.5)Heat Cover (Favorites)

Predictably, the Heat and Sixers also split their season series ATS. Miami have covered the spread in six of their last 10 meetings with Philadelphia. That being said, the Sixers are on an unbelievable 10-0 ATS streak heading into this one. They're also 7-0 ATS in their last seven games at home.


DateScoreO/U TotalFinal TotalO/U Result
April. 4, 2024109-105211.5214OVER
Mar. 18, 202498-91206189UNDER
Feb. 14, 2024109-104226.5213UNDER
Dec. 25, 2023119-113227.5234OVER

Many bettors will target the OVER with such a low total. Although the UNDER has hit in 12 of Philly's last 18 games against Miami. The total has also gone UNDER in six of the last 10 Miami-Philadelphia games. However, the nine of Miami's last 10 games have gone OVER the total. With seven of Philadelphia's last 10 also hitting the OVER mark.

Key Matchup: Joel Embiid Vs Heat Bigs

Joel Embiid12944%4311

Embiid sat out three of the four matchups versus Miami this season. He played just 33 minutes against the Heat in their most recent skirmish, and devastated the men from South Beach with 29 points. He's averaged 30.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in five games since returning.

The deciding factor in this game is whether or not Bam Adebayo and co. can slow down Embiid.

Final Pick: Philadelphia 76ers ML (-190)

Philly has been on a tear since Embiid returned from a meniscus injury a few weeks ago. Nick Nurse's squad have beaten the Heat twice in the last month, and has handily beaten multiple playoff teams, coming away with victories against the Clippers, OKC, and Orlando recently. With Embiid reportedly "ready to go", the Sixers are an easy play here. Bet Philadelphia at -190 on the moneyline.

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