Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action.
Teams up 2-0 after taking two games on the road are 16-0 in the conference finals historically, so the Dallas Mavericks are in an enviable position heading home for Game 3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday night.
Let's take a closer look at all of our expert picks for this matchup.
(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices
NBA Expert Picks Results: Conference Finals
| Expert | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Holz | 6-1 | 4.39 |
| David Caraviello | 3-2 | .85 |
| Christopher Walder | 3-7 | -3.66 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +2 (-103) | +114 | O 207.5 (-110) |
| Dallas Mavericks | -2 (-108) | -126 | U 207.5 (-110) |
Christopher Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS -2 (-108)
A grand total of four points has separated Dallas and Minnesota through the opening two contests, but as the series shifts to the Lone Star State, the Mavericks enter a scenario which they're highly accustomed to coming off a road victory in Game 2.
Dallas defeated both the Los Angeles Clippers and No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder this postseason in their backyards in Game 2 before returning home to win Game 3 both SU and ATS. The Timberwolves won't back down, though, having gone 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games entering a matchup as an underdog of 3.5 points or greater, although three of those wins came against the reigning champion Denver Nuggets who they had a noticeable positional advantage against.
Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS as favorites by at least that much across its last four, so something has to give. The Mavericks ultimately gets the edge here because despite the scores being close, they've managed to overcome noteworthy deficits in both games and shown no fear in doing so. Their schemes across the board, whether it's turning Anthony Edwards into a shooter, switching into mismatches, or getting clean looks at the basket despite being undersized, have worked flawlessly.
Christopher Walder's Pick: Daniel Gafford OVER 8.5 Points (+108)
You'd think the clocks turned back a decade and Game 2 was held in Los Angeles because the Mavericks went full-blown "Lob City" versus Minnesota by breaking down the defense and tossing up high passes for numerous alley-oop slams, despite the presence of the reigning Defensive Player of the Year at the rim.
Daniel Gafford was one of the beneficiaries, tying a franchise record with five dunks in a playoff game. He finished with 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting in just 21 minutes of action on Friday after nearly securing a double-double with 10 points and nine boards in Game 1 in the same amount of playing time.
Dereck Lively II has played more off the bench at the five spot this series, but Gafford still has a role on offense and has dropped 10 or more points in four of his last five games and seven of his last nine. At plus money, you can't go wrong.
Nick Holz's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ATS +2 (-103)
This pick hurts my heart, as I have a large NBA futures wager on the Mavericks to win the Western Conference.
However, all the trends point towards Minnesota coming out on top in a must-win Game 3. As I've examined this postseason, NBA teams down 0-2 rarely turn things around to win the series. That being said, teams coming off a loss in the conference finals are 27-13-1 ATS in the last 41 follow up contests.
Plus, teams who are up 2-0 in the last 13 Conference Finals series are just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS in Game 3. We hit big on Denver to win Game 3 in the last round, when the whole world was loving these Minnesota Timberwolves. Look for recent history to repeat itself in the third game of this Western Conference Final.
David Caraviello's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS -2 (-108)
Dallas completely discombobulated the Timberwolves during the first two games in Minnesota, with the T-Wolves’ vaunted defense unable to stop Luka Doncic in crunch time. While the Mavericks have been better on the road than at home in these playoffs, they’ve also covered seven of their last nine and are tough to pass up taking a 2-0 series lead to Dallas.
