The wait is finally over! March Madness officially tips off today! College basketball bettors are in for a treat, as there's a ton of value to be found on the NCAAB Tournament's opening day. Keep your hands and feet inside the ride and hold on tight, we've got a plethora of picks coming at you each and every day.
Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I will be providing March Madness bets for you all tournament long.
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Nick's Pick: Mississippi State +1 vs Michigan State
Matchup: Mississippi State vs Michigan State
Mississippi State plays a physical brand of basketball. It excels on the glass, sitting 22nd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and pound the ball inside where it knocked down 63% of near proximity shots.
The Bulldogs play at a snails pace, and protect the basketball while forcing a turnover on 10.2% of opponent percentage. Michigan State plays in much the same way, slowing the game down and methodically breaking down defenses.
Neither one of these teams will be in a hurry, so I'm rolling with the team who forces turnovers and crashes the offensive glass. This game is likely to turn into a rock fight, in the same vein as Mississippi State's SEC Tournament loss to Auburn. However, Michigan State isn't nearly as talented, and lacks the offensive punch to make the Bulldogs pay. I'm on the underdog Mississippi State Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament's opening game.
Nick's Pick: Oregon +1.5 vs South Carolina
Matchup: Oregon vs South Carolina
According to KenPom, South Carolina has been the second luckiest team in the country this season, going 9-3 in close games. I like that luck to run out in the NCAA Tournament's opening round.
South Carolina plays at a snail's pace (353rd in the country), and over 41% of their total field goals are three-pointers. Concerningly, they connect on just 33.5% of attempts from downtown. On top of that, the Gamecocks sit outside of the top-80 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. South Carolina possesses all the attributes of a team that is ripe for the picking. Kevin Keatt's team is in trouble against a red-hot Oregon.
Oregon won four straight games to power themselves to the Pac-12 Tournament championship. They upset both Arizona and Colorado to take home the win as an underdog, and I like them to do the same in the round of 64.
Nick's Pick: McNeese +6.5 vs Gonzaga
Matchup: McNeese vs Gonzaga
The Cowboys are one of my 2024 March Madness Cinderella picks.
Will Wade's squad possess all the hallmarks of a quintessential bracket buster. The Cowboys sit 60th in KenPom's rankings, and sit sixth in the country in turnover percentage. They protect the ball on offense, and attack on the offensive glass, sitting 79th in offensive rebounding percentage. Plus, they play at a slow pace, and won't let Gonzaga run away with the victory.
I like the Cowboys to both cover the spread, and win outright as a +225 moneyline underdog.
David's Pick: Colorado St. +2.5 vs Texas
Matchup: Colorado St. vs Texas
The tournament selection committee chronically under-seeded teams from the Mountain West, a fact displayed vividly in Colorado State’s pummeling of Virginia in the First Four. Texas meanwhile limps into the Big Dance having lost 10 of its last 19 outright, and having covered just three of its last eight. The Longhorns also own the worst cover rate of any team in the Round of 64, at 37%.
David's Pick: Oakland vs Kentucky OVER 162.5
Matchup: Oakland vs Kentucky
Kentucky’s freshman-laden lineup scores a lot of points, because it has to—the Wildcats can also be a sieve defensively, allowing opponents an average of nearly 80 per game. This is a team that gave up 88 to St. Joseph’s, 82 to Marshall and 80 to UNC Wilmington earlier this season, and no surprise has gone over the total in five of its last six. Oakland averages 76 points per game, and has gone over the total in nine of its last 13.
Tony's Pick: Samford +7 vs Kansas
Matchup: Samford vs Kansas
I bet Samford +8.5 and gave out the pick during our live X spaces show while citing the questionable health of Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. Since then, McCullar Jr. (18.3 PPG) has been ruled out for Kansas and the line has dropped to +7. I still like it. Though Dickinson is expected to play, Kansas struggled to get scoring production from anyone outside K.J. Adams Jr. in its ugly 72-52 loss to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament.
The Jayhawks, who finished the season 1-4, struggle with depth, ranking 317th in bench minutes (23.7%). There’s no place like home for Kansas, which went 1-7 in its last eight games away from home and finished the season 7-9 while traveling.
While the Jayhawks struggle with depth, Samford has gotten 44.8% of its minutes from the bench this season (3rd highest in the country). Samford finished the season strong going 6-1 in its final seven games and their one loss came vs. Wofford while missing three of its best players. The Bulldogs have a fiesty defense that is one of the best in the country at creating extra possessions (Ranking 10th in Steal % and 16th in Turnover %).
Tony's Pick: Drake ML vs Washington St.
Matchup: Drake vs Washington St.
Drake has some tournament experience after winning a First Four game in 2021 and leading Miami with 2:28 left in the First Round last year. Washington State hasn’t been in the Big Dance since 2008. The Bulldogs are 6-1 vs. teams ranked in the top 100 at KenPom.com, while the Cougars are 10-6.
Drake should be able to get some open looks from 3-point range in this one and they’re hitting 36.5% from beyond the arc. In what could be a close game, it’s worth noting that Drake is much better from the free throw line (76.3% vs. 70.1%).
This game opened with Drake as an underdog and quickly changed to Drake being the favorite, suggesting some respected wise guys agree Drake is the correct here.
