The No. 5-ranked Michigan Wolverines may have hit their first stumble over the last week with a loss to Wisconsin and scraping by for a two-point win over Minnesota but they’ll look to continue their winning ways over the Indiana Hoosiers. The Wolverines have won five straight games vs their Big Ten opponent (5-0 ATS) with an average win margin of 14 points per game. That doesn’t bode well for an Indiana squad that has lost five straight conference games, including an 11-point loss to the Wolverines back on January 6.
The Wolverines opened as 3.5-point faves (since moved to -4) with a total of 134.
- Michigan is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in 6 road games this season.
- Indiana is averaging 62 points over its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of Michigan’s last 10 games with a closing total of 134.0 or more.
Michigan vs Indiana Game Center
Michigan Has the Look of a National Title Contender
Sitting at 18-1 SU in 19 games this year and ranked fifth in the nation, the Michigan Wolverines have carried over their success from last season right into conference play. The Wolverines made the national title game last season and with essentially the same roster outside of Moritz Wagner, they have all the pieces to make a deep run in March.
Freshman Ignas Brazdeikis is doing his best to fill in the production left by Wagner and he currently leads the team with 14.9 points per game. Holdovers Charles Matthews and Jordan Poole are combining to score 26.2 points per game and could give the Hoosiers squad fits on the perimeter.
Where the Wolverines stand out this year is on defense as they rank third in the nation in points allowed per game (57.1) and are holding teams to only 40 percent from the field. When they faced the Hoosiers on January 6 at home, they only shot 25 percent from three but took great care of the basketball with only three turnovers. If Michigan has close to a repeat performance like that, Indiana stands no chance.
Indiana Has Been Horrible in Conference Play
Coming into the season, I had high hopes for Indiana to make its mark on the college basketball landscape by getting hometown five-star recruit Romeo Langford. The Hoosiers have been irrelevant for a few years with the turnover of coaching from Tom Crean to Archie Miller and Langford was the first high-profile recruit in the Hickory State to stay home since Cody Zeller. Well, it turns out that you need more than one stud in your lineup if you want to make noise in a stacked Big Ten Conference.
Indiana is 3-5 SU in eight conference games after a strong start that saw it topple Marquette and Louisville in out-of-conference matchups. Now, the Hoosiers are in a downward spiral since their last loss to Michigan by losing five straight conference games with an average loss margin of 10.1 points per contest, including some ugly losses to Northwestern (road) and Nebraska (home).
During this five-game losing streak, the Hoosiers are shooting a woeful 25 percent from three-point range and Langford has contributed to that mess as he’s missed his last 10 attempts from the perimeter. I want to believe that the hometown crowd and a back-against-the-wall mentality will push Indiana to a win but the Hoosiers haven’t shown anything to me in almost a month that they can compete with the upper-echelon teams in the country.
Should You Be on the UNDER?
The total opened at 134 and with Michigan involved, the UNDER has to be seriously considered. When the total is set at 134 or more, the UNDER has hit in eight of Michigan’s last 10 games in that spot. They play suffocating defense and when these teams met just over two weeks ago, the final combined score was 132 so while that’s a razor-thin margin, I tend to think the defense will come to play.
My Pick Is…
To take Michigan to win and cover the spread. Indiana is a dumpster fire lately and Michigan is far and away the better team. I expect Indiana to put up a good fight but ultimately come up short and lose its sixth straight game.
