It’s the third Saturday in October and that means the Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers collide with hopes of collecting their victory cigars as the two meet at Neyland Stadium. Alabama has won the last 11 games with Tennessee and opens this year’s match as a 28.5-point favorite. The two schools have had an average combined score of 50.6 over the last five contests and this week's total opened at 57 points.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Alabama’s last eight games (avg. combined score: 66.25).
- Alabama is 9-0 SU in its last nine games.
- Alabama is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games vs Tennessee.
Alabama vs Tennessee Game Center
Alabama is an unstoppable force
The Crimson Tide pushed their record to 7-0 with their 39-10 victory over Missouri in Week 7. Alabama has been on an absolute tear through the first seven weeks of the season, outscoring opponents 375-106. This is just the third time that Alabama has packed up and headed out on the road and the team has had great success in the first two away games, swarming Ole Miss 62-7 and topping Arkansas 65-31. Overall, the Crimson Tide are 16-1 SU in their last 17 road games, with their only loss coming against Auburn in last year’s Iron Bowl.
Alabama has the best offense in the nation, averaging 53.6 points per game and scoring a total of 375 points, which is 51 points more than second-place Ohio State. It is led by Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa. The sophomore quarterback has thrown 21 touchdowns without an interception and has a 97.4 quarterback rating, which is the best in the nation. The Hawaii native has done all of this without stepping foot on the field in the fourth quarter this year. But the Crimson Tide, as usual, have a strong defense, surrendering just 15.1 points per game, which is seventh-fewest in college football.
Tennessee looks for back-to-back upsets
Tennessee broke out of its two-game losing streak by topping then-No. 21 Auburn 30-24 on the road in Week 7. The Volunteers’ losing skid came against a stout Florida team and then-No. 2 Georgia the following week – the life of playing in the SEC. Tennessee’s only other loss this season came against then-No. 17 West Virginia 40-14 in Week 1. At home this year the Vols are 2-1 with their only loss coming against the Gators.
The Volunteers are just average on both sides of the ball this season. They are scoring 26.7 points per game, which ranks 84th in the nation, while allowing 25.3 points per game, which ranks in a tie for 64th in college football. Sophomore quarterback Jarrett Guarantano has been just OK, throwing for 1,129 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions, completing 64 percent of his passes. Last week vs Auburn, Tennessee forced three turnovers – one fumble and two interceptions – while not turning the ball over on offense.
Should you be on the OVER this week?
Recent trends point toward the OVER between Alabama and Tennessee and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 57 points. The Crimson Tide have gone OVER in six of their last eight games with an average combined score of 66.25, while the Volunteers have gone OVER in seven of their last 10 home games vs the SEC. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in five of Alabama’s last six games vs Tennessee with an average combined score of 51.67. Lastly, Alabama is leading the nation, averaging 53.6 points per game, so finding an OVER when it is on the field isn’t hard to do.
My take on Alabama vs Tennessee
I like Alabama to cover the -28.5 spread. The Crimson Tide are 7-0 SU this season with an average winning margin of 38.43, with only one game being settled by fewer than 28 points and that’s when they beat then-No. 22 Texas A&M 45-23 in Week 4. Additionally, Alabama is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games vs Tennessee with an average winning margin of 24.55 and is also 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs the Volunteers. Lastly, the Crimson Tide are 16-1 SU in their last 17 road games with an average winning margin of 21.56 but are 2-0 SU this year with Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback with an average winning margin of 44.5.
