The defending college football national champions have one last tune-up game before heading back to the scene of the crime to play the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship game next week. The Crimson Tide opened as a 24-point favorite at home in Week 13 against the Auburn Tigers. The Tigers won SU in this spot last year – Alabama’s only regular-season loss since September 2015. The total opened at 52 for this game.
- Alabama is 25-0 SU in its last 25 games at home (avg. winning margin: 31.4).
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Auburn’s last nine games (avg. combined score: 43.56).
- Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs its conference.
Tigers in the Trap
Auburn has won the season-ending Iron Bowl twice since 2013, including a 26-14 win last year at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers last won at Tuscaloosa in 2010. So, can Auburn catch this year’s Alabama squad looking forward like it did last year? Not so fast.
After heading into the half tied with The Citadel in Week 12, Alabama got its act together and exploded for 40 points in the second half. That could be bad news for the Tigers, who may have been counting on such a situation in this week’s game. I fully expect Alabama to come out locked and loaded at home in this intra-state rivalry game.
Don’t Expect Anything But the Starters for Alabama
Nick Saban answered all questions about lightly stepping down the home stretch ahead of the playoffs by starting a nicked-up Tua Tagovailoa against the Citadel. The Heisman favorite tossed for 340 yards and three touchdowns en route to the win before giving way to Jalen Hurts late in the game.
Tua has accumulated 12.1 yards per passing attempt and should be able to have more success at home against the No. 44 passing defense in the FBS. However, as good as the ’Bama offense has been, it’s likely that the No. 3 scoring defense is going to be in prime form vs Auburn.
The defense uncharacteristically surrendered 10 first-half points before buckling down vs The Citadel. After getting taken to task in the locker room, it was much better in the second half and retained its ranking as one of the top defenses in college football.
My Bet for This Game
I’m taking Alabama at -24.5 in this game and it’s not just because Tua and the offense are 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 25 points or less this year. The only game the Tide didn’t cover in that position was a 22-point victory as a 24.5-point favorite vs Texas A&M in Week 3.
More glaring for me is that the Auburn offense is ranked 121st out of 130 FBS teams in time spent on the field. If the Tigers can’t stay on the field against average teams, they will be in a lot of trouble for surrendering points against Alabama.
