The University of Georgia Bulldogs secured a rematch of last year’s national championship in this year’s SEC title game with a dominant 34-17 win over Kentucky last week. Georgia will meet Alabama in the SEC title game on December 1 in a game that opened with a +13.5-point spread.
The thing is, Georgia still has three games left on its schedule, including at home to Auburn on Saturday. The Bulldogs are a 14.5-point favorite against a Tigers team that is playing just its third road game of the season and Auburn will be the underdog for the first time this year.
- Georgia has the top rushing offense in the SEC (233.8 YPG).
- Auburn is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games on the road vs Georgia (avg. losing margin: 20.6).
- Jake Fromm has the No. 2 completion percentage (67.7%) and QB Rating (169.85) in the SEC.
Loss to LSU Was a Wake-Up Call for Bulldogs
Since losing to LSU heading into a bye week, Georgia has rebounded to beat two Top 25 teams by three scores each – first, 36-17 over Florida in Week 9 and then 34-17 over Kentucky in Week 10.
Jake Fromm threw for three touchdowns against Florida and another one in the win over Kentucky. He did not throw a single interception. In fact, Fromm has a 17-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is behind only Tua Tagovailoa in SEC completion percentage and QB rating.
Defense Will Tell the Story
Georgia has the No. 10 scoring defense in the nation (16.4 points per game) while Auburn is No. 13 (17.3 PPG). Those numbers only tell part of the story, though, as one must evaluate the strength of the opponent when analyzing those numbers.
As we learned in Week 10, things change when you consider top-ranked offenses against top-ranked defenses. Kentucky, which still has the No. 8 scoring defense in the FBS (15.8 PPG), was tagged for 34 points and 444 yards by the Bulldogs – by far the highest numbers vs Kentucky all season.
Auburn Won Last Year
Georgia lost just two games last season: the national championship and a November 11 game at Auburn. I think that win is giving Auburn a little more credit than it’s maybe due in this year’s game as the Tigers just don’t stack up statistically to the Bulldogs. The thing to be wary of, though, is that Georgia was coming off clinching a title game last year when it got caught in the trap.
Auburn has three conference losses already vs LSU, Mississippi State and Tennessee. The loss to Tennessee in October gave the Volunteers their first conference win in 11 games (the Vols have gone on to lose two more SEC games since).
My Pick for This Game
14.5 points is a pretty big spread for Georgia. The Bulldogs are only 2-3 ATS when better than a 14-point favorite this season. One stat does stand out, though, when Georgia is a double-digit favorite this season – UNDER. The UNDER has hit in four of five games when the Bulldogs have been double-digit faves and there are some more UNDER trends in this matchup as well.
The UNDER has hit in four of the last five games between these schools with an average combined score of 37.2. Additionally, the UNDER has hit in nine of UGA’s last 12 games at home vs teams with winning records and in six of the Tigers’ last eight games vs the SEC.
The total hasn’t been released for this game yet, and when it is, I’ll be looking very closely at an UNDER bet.
