A perennial Mountain West Conference power, Boise State enters bowl season winners of seven of its last eight games. However, that one loss was to Fresno State in the Mountain West title game. The Broncos finished the regular season 10-3 overall and 7-5-1 against the spread. With an average game total of 57.3, the UNDER has hit in each of the Broncos’ past five games.
After starting the season 7-2, Boston College finished 0-3 straight up and against the spread to round out a mediocre 7-5 SU and ATS schedule. With an average game total of 53.7, the UNDER has hit in four of its past five games.
Boise State opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but that ticked up to Broncos -3. Boston College’s moneyline opened at +155, but dipped to +120 as bettors forced oddsmakers to cover their butts. The point total opened at 55 before moving to 56. The First Responder Bowl’s average total all-time is 61.2 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in Boise State’s last five games (avg. combined score: 45.8).
- Boston College is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Boston College’s last five games (avg. combined score: 46.6).
Boston College vs Boise State First Responders Bowl Game Center
WHAT WE KNOW, LEARNED & MATCHUPS TO CONSIDER
Boise State
Quarterback Brett Rypien passed for 285 yards per game with 30 touchdowns and only seven interceptions this season. His 30 scores ranked ninth nationally. However, there’s a difference between lighting up MWC foes and facing a Boston College defense that finished the regular season with 18 interceptions – tops in the nation.
With Rypien reeled in a little, keep your eyes on junior running back Alexander Mattison, who ranks 14th in the nation in rush yards per game at nearly 109 per pop. He leads all running backs with 302 carries and has posted 200 rushing yards in back-to-back games. Boston College ranks 52nd against the rush, allowing 154.9 ground yards per game to date. Advantage: Mattison.
The most notable aspect of the Broncos defense is their ability to get off the field on third down. Opposing offenses have converted only 31.1 percent of their third downs against Boise State this season. The Broncos rank right behind Alabama’s defense (!!) in that category. The Eagles have to avoid third-and-longs or pay the price.
Boston College
Like Boise State, Boston College features an elite running back. Sophomore AJ Dillon averaged 110.8 rush yards per game but only scored 10 touchdowns to Mattison’s 17. He’s a big back listed at six feet and 245 pounds.
Unlike Boise State, the Eagles passing game ranks in the bottom half of the FBS at 215.3 yards per game. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Brown has completed better than 58 percent of his passes just once over his past eight games. If Boise State’s 22nd-ranked rush defense loads up against Dillon, can Brown lead the Eagles to the end zone?
DALLAS, TEXAS FORECAST AND KICKERS
Overcast with 40 percent chance of showers and temperatures in the low to mid-60s. The wind shouldn’t impact the game.
Broncos senior kicker Haden Hoggarth has made 57 of 58 extra points, but just 12 of 20 field-goal attempts this season. The Eagles have endured kicking woes throughout much of the season and have used both senior Colton Lichtenberg and freshman John Tessitore. Lichtenberg has attempted only eight field goals this season and connected on five along with 29 extra points.
MY LEAN
Boston College is 2-8 straight up and against the spread in its last 10 bowl games. On the flip side, Boise State is 12-6 SU and ATS in bowl games all-time with a 3-1 SU and ATS record over its past four.
While I have little doubt the Eagles can limit Rypien and the Broncos’ 18th-ranked pass offense, I have concerns about Boston College also stopping Mattison when the Eagles don’t boast an elite rush defense. The whole MWC vs ACC debate and Boise State’s struggles against Power Five competition are just arguments, but at the end of the day, the Broncos rushing game vs the Eagles rush defense trumps Boston College’s offense vs Boise State’s defense.
I’m leaning Boise State to cover the -3 and the UNDER.
Note: If you’re looking for a reason to back the Eagles, Boise State is 1-4 in its last five games against teams from Power Five conferences.
