The Troy Trojans were one of the best cover plays in the country this season, while boasting an impressive 7-1 mark in Sun Belt Conference play – but neither of those things matter heading into Saturday’s Dollar General Bowl against the Buffalo Bulls. The Trojans didn’t do a lot of things well on offense but were a consistently difficult team to score against, allowing more than 22 points just twice all season – and not after a Sept. 22 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
That stout defense will be matched up against a Buffalo offense that tore through the MAC, producing nearly 35 points per game but falling just short in a 30-29 loss to Northern Illinois in the conference championship. And the Bulls are no one-trick pony, boasting one of the stingiest pass defenses in the nation while producing a 9-4-0 ATS mark on the season. Buffalo is a narrow 2-point favorite in the Dollar General Bowl, with the total set at 51.5 – down from a 53.5 open.
- Troy is 8-0 SU in its last eight games after a loss.
- Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as favorite.
- The total has gone UNDER in three of Troy’s last four games.
Beware the Bounce-back
It has been a long time since the Trojans have lost two consecutive games – and after falling 21-10 to Appalachian State on November 24, they’d love to extend that streak Saturday at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Troy has been one of the best bounce-back teams in the country since the end of the 2015-16 season, having won eight consecutive games following a defeat.
And the Trojans haven’t just responded with victories – they’ve rolled over the majority of their opponents in that span, going 6-2 ATS in those eight games while scoring fewer than 34 points just once. Six of those eight victories came by 21 or more points, and they outscored their opponents 97-24 in two games following a loss this season.
While it might be part fluke and part small sample size, it’s hard to argue with the Trojans’ extended run of success in games following a defeat. And while the Bulls might produce enough offense to hang with Troy, we like the Trojans to convert the OVER on their team total, which sits at 24.5.
Potential Penalty Parade?
In games with spreads this small, bettors are looking for any angle that might give them an edge – the less obvious, the better. And with the Dollar General Bowl potentially coming down to one or two key possessions, the Bulls enter the weekend with a significant advantage when it comes to discipline – or, in the Trojans’ case, a lack thereof.
Buffalo picked up 64 accepted penalties in 13 games this season, good for an average of 4.92 per game – the 26th-best rate in Division I. And the Bulls were even better at drawing flags, forcing FBS opponents into an average of 7.7 per contest (fifth-most in the nation.) Their 78.9 penalty yards gained per game are second-most in the country.
Contrast that with a Troy team that picked up 20 more flags in one fewer game – good for a 7.00 per game average that ranked just inside the top 100 – and the Bulls will almost certainly look to take advantage of the Trojans’ discipline issues. Look for the Bulls to use that edge to ultimately make good on the -2 cover.
My Pick: Bulls Open with Six
It’s no surprise to see many of the nation’s top-scoring teams with a serious aversion to field goals – but the Bulls are on a whole other level here. Buffalo comes into its final game of the season having scored 62 touchdowns while booting just nine field goals – making it one of only five teams in the top 40 in scoring offense to have single-digit FGs.
While Troy (43 TDs, 18 FGs) has been much more amenable to going for the three-point option, Buffalo has been TD-or-bust for most of the season. And with the Bulls averaging the 14th-most first-quarter points vs FBS opponents, I highly recommend taking the MAC runners-up to open the scoring at Saturday’s Dollar General Bowl with a touchdown.
