Two of the top 30 scoring offenses in the FBS will take the field against two exposable defenses when Florida International and Toledo meet in Nassau on Friday. The fifth annual Bahamas Bowl features two first-time participants in this Conference USA vs Mid-American Conference bowl game. The conferences have split the first four iterations of the Bahamas Bowl with Ohio blowing out UAB 41-6 last year. Toledo opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this game with the line moving to -6 on Monday.
- Both teams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in Florida International’s last 5 games (avg. combined score: 60.0).
- Toledo has the No. 11 scoring offense in the nation (41.1 points per game).
FIU vs Toledo Bahamas Bowl Game Center
Mismatch on the Ground
The biggest reason that the Rockets are a favorite in this game is the disparity between their rushing attack and the FIU run defense. Led by freshman Bryant Koback’s 875 yards (6.3 yards per carry), Toledo averaged a whopping 223.6 yards per game on the ground this season.
Koback has plenty of support as well, with Art Thompkins and Shakif Seymour both going over 500 yards. Backup quarterback Mitchell Guadagni scampered for 428 yards when he was under center, to go with his 1,053 passing yards. However, Guadagni will back up Eli Peters to start this game.
With all the ground yardage that Toledo has accumulated, there is a reason to worry for Florida International bettors and fans. FIU is 100th among FBS teams in stopping the run at 198.4 yards against per game. There aren’t many teams that allow more rushing yards than passing yards, but that’s the case for the Golden Panthers.
It’s Not Only Toledo With a Potent Offense
While FIU will give up its share of points, it also has the ability to score them as evidenced by its average of 34.6 points per game this season – that’s the No. 30 scoring offense in the FBS.
Just like the Toledo run game presents a huge challenge for FIU, the FIU pass game presents a huge challenge for Toledo’s No. 104 pass defense. James Morgan, FIU’s junior QB from Green Bay, Wisconsin, completed 65.3 percent of his passes this season for an average of 8.37 yards per attempt and a 157.6 QB rating.
Morgan set a school record with 26 passing touchdowns and he added one more score with his legs. NFL prospect CJ Worton is his favorite target, with 36 receptions, 620 yards and six touchdowns. However, there’s plenty of options in the attack with seven different players having 15 or more receptions in FIU’s 12 games.
My Bet for This Game
I’m tempted to pick FIU at +6 as this has the makings of a game that goes back and forth but remains close throughout. However, instead, I’m going to go with OVER 66.5 points as my play.
These offenses routinely scored over 35 points and each team has a marked advantage over a segment of the opponent’s defense. Buckle up, this one should be fun!
