Mississippi State had boasted one of the most impressive offenses in all of Division I heading into last weekend’s encounter with host Kentucky, but the Wildcats put the brakes on the Bulldogs’ point parade, holding the visitors to just seven points in a stunning 21-point victory. Mississippi State will look to get back on track Saturday against visiting Florida – but with a date with Auburn lurking on the first weekend of October, the Bulldogs would be wise not to look too far ahead.
The Gators will be a game opponent in this one, having trounced host Tennessee 47-21 last weekend as a 3.5-point favorite. Florida has one thing in common with the Bulldogs: its only loss of the season also came to Kentucky. But the Gators are headed in the opposite direction from a momentum standpoint, having scored a whopping 95 points over their last two games to post back-to-back no-doubt covers. Mississippi State is a 9-point fave in this one.
- Florida is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games vs Mississippi State.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Mississippi State’s last nine games vs its conference.
- Florida is 0-5 SU in its last five games on the road after winning its most recent road game.
Florida vs Mississippi State Game Center
Bulldogs Have Plenty of Bite at Home
Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field has been mostly inhospitable for even some of Division I’s most elite teams. Mississippi State comes into this one not only having rolled to three consecutive home victories, but has also gone an impressive 8-3 SU and ATS in its previous 11 home games despite having played a handful of tough opponents.
That stretch includes a 37-7 rout of LSU as a 7.5-point underdog last season, and a 35-28 triumph over Texas A&M despite getting 10 points back in November 2016. Mississippi State also gave Alabama all it could handle at home last season, ultimately dropping a 31-24 decision to the national champions but covering comfortably at +14.
Let’s throw in the fact that Mississippi State has broken the 30-point barrier nine times over that 11-game stretch and say the Bulldogs are a great bet to surpass their team point total, which should become available later in the week.
Back to Back to Back? Don’t Bet on It
The Florida Gators aren’t good at stringing together successful covers, despite what bettors might think about their showing the previous two weeks. Florida enters Week 5 action having gone a dismal 3-10 ATS in its previous 13 games following a successful cover the previous week, and is just 3-11 ATS in the last 14 after scoring 40 or more points last time out.
Sure, the Gators did add to the win column of both of those stats with 40-point showings against Colorado State and Tennessee, but Florida hasn’t strung together three consecutive covers in nearly three years. And it fared poorly in its only two opportunities to do so since then, suffering a 31-10 loss to Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite in 2016 and falling 19-17 to Texas A&M at -3 in 2017.
Inconsistency has been a problem for the Gators from a betting standpoint, and that isn’t likely to change this weekend. Look for Florida to see its modest cover streak end at two games for the third consecutive time.
My Pick: MSU is Just Fine -9 (or Higher)
By now, it’s clear to see that I like the Bulldogs to cover this one – but if you’re looking to secure a better profit, I recommend taking the home team by double digits. Mississippi State has lost consecutive games just twice since October 2016, and those back-to-back losses came to Alabama and Arkansas, and Georgia and Auburn, respectively. And three of those defeats came on the road.
With Mississippi State having gone 23-5 ATS in its last 28 home games against teams with winning road records and Florida having covered just twice in its past nine road games (even including last week’s rout of Tennessee), I like the Bulldogs to cover all the way to -13.5 – so if you can find a bigger number for a bigger payout, I suggest you take it.
