Two weeks ago, as 7-point favorites at LSU, Georgia suffered an embarrassing 36-16 loss to the Bayou Bengals. With an extra week to think about it, the Bulldogs came out, forced three turnovers and outgained Florida 429-275 in a 36-17 Week 9 victory. With the win, Georgia is now 7-1 overall and 4-4 against the spread.
Despite a 6-1 record heading in, Kentucky was a 7.5-point underdog at Missouri last weekend. To the surprise of few, oddsmakers were onto something as the Wildcats needed a last-second touchdown – their only end-zone trip of the game – to win outright, 15-14, but failed to cover and dropped to 4-4 against the spread this season.
Georgia opened as a 12.5-point favorite, but Big Blue backers shrank the spread to -10. It’s the first time since 2014 that UK has been a home dog of 12.5 or more points.
- Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
- Georgia is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs Kentucky.
- The total has gone UNDER in Kentucky’s last five games (avg. combined score: 30.6).
Georgia vs Kentucky Game Center
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 9
Georgia – The Bulldogs have now scored 36 or more points in seven out of eight games. LSU’s seventh-ranked scoring defense, which allows 15.1 points per game, held them to 16. Was that loss a wake-up call?
Sophomore quarterback Jake Fromm bounced back from an ugly performance against LSU, where he finished 16-for-34 for 209 with three interceptions, to complete better than 70 percent of his passes for 240 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers. The Gators rank eighth nationally with 18 forced turnovers. So, for Georgia to commit none was a win in itself.
Kentucky – The Wildcats defense continues to impress. Missouri’s offense, which was averaging better than 35 points per game, was held to just 14. That’s in line with Kentucky’s top-ranked season average of 13 points allowed per game.
On the other side of the ball, there is cause for concern. A team that is only averaging 25.6 points per game this season has been held to 15 or fewer points the past three games. Kentucky’s pass offense currently ranks 119th nationally and its top-30 rush offense was held to 2.6 yards per rush by Missouri.
HOW GEORGIA CAN COVER
Georgia’s Week 2 road contest at South Carolina is a decent, recent comparison to this matchup. The Bulldogs covered the -8 on that day by controlling the clock via the run. They won time of possession 36-24 by running the ball 52 times for 271 yards with three touchdowns, paced by Elijah Holyfield’s 76 yards on just nine carries. Run the ball, control the clock, avoid offensive and special teams turnovers and cover.
HOW KENTUCKY CAN COVER
The Bulldogs’ 2018 resume is pretty weak. Aside from Florida, their only other “quality” opponent was an LSU squad that blew them out. So, it’s fair to say the Wildcats are one of Georgia’s three toughest games to date and present an opportunity for a cover and straight-up win being that UK is at home.
They don’t need to stop a Georgia offense averaging 38.6 points per game, but they do need to contain it. With Kentucky’s defense allowing fewer than 109 rushing and 187 pass yards per game, this is doable. Both the UGA pass and rush offenses rank outside the top 25. So, it’s not like the Bulldogs are world-beaters. The Wildcats have more interceptions, 7, than touchdown passes allowed this season, 6.
LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY FORECAST
Mostly cloudy with temperatures around 50 degrees and a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be 10-15 miles per hour. With the 3:30 p.m. kickoff, expect second-half temperatures to dip significantly with an expected low of 36 degrees.
Georgia’s junior kicker Rodrigo Blankenship is 13-for-15 on field goals and 36-for-36 on extra points this season. After missing a field goal in each of his past four games, Kentucky’s senior kicker Miles Butler was benched in favor of freshman foot Chance Poore. He made his only kick, a 31-yard field goal, against Missouri.
MY PICK
Georgia is 10-0 straight up but only 3-7 against the spread in road matchups when favored by 12.5 or more points. The Bulldogs have failed to cover in three of their last four under these conditions.
Kentucky is 0-10 straight up and 3-7 against the spread when receiving 12.5 or more points at home, failing to cover in three of its last four.
This will be Kentucky’s first challenge against a ranked opponent since late September. So, more than a month has passed and the Wildcats haven’t faced a balanced offense like Georgia’s. If the Bulldogs take care of the football and limit the turnovers, I think they used the LSU game as a wake-up call and won’t take Kentucky for granted. Bulldogs cover.
