The Georgia Bulldogs (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) are 16-1 SU and 10-7 ATS over their last 17 games after having their 16-game win streak snapped by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Georgia will try to bounce back as a favorite in the Orange Bowl national semifinal against the Michigan Wolverines (12-1, 11-2).
Opening Odds Analysis
The Bulldogs opened as 7-point favorites in the Orange Bowl but have since been bet up to Georgia -8. Action on the OVER has pushed the total from its opener at 43 points up to 44.5 points. The OVER is 12-3 in Michigan’s last 15 games against SEC teams.
Georgia News & Notes
After opening the season with a hotly contested 10-3 win over the Clemson Tigers as 3-point underdogs, the Bulldogs went on a relentless tear through the rest of their regular-season schedule. Georgia entered the SEC championship game on the heels of an 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS run in which the team outscored opponents 478-80 for an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. The Bulldogs looked untouchable.
And then they got stomped 41-24 by Alabama. This was a defense that hadn’t given up more than 17 points in a game all season and had allowed more than seven points only four times in 12 games. One loss to an elite team like Alabama doesn’t erase all of the outstanding play Georgia has compiled this season, but it does eliminate their air of invincibility heading into the College Football Playoff.
Michigan News & Notes
The season that Michigan fans have been waiting for since the program hired Jim Harbaugh finally took place in 2021. The Wolverines played like a dominant force throughout the season and did so when it counted against the Ohio State Buckeyes, scoring a 42-27 win over the team’s hated rivals. A 42-3 win in the Big Ten championship tilt felt like an afterthought after the win over Ohio State.
Michigan enters the College Football Playoff ranked No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 16.1 points per game. This Orange Bowl matchup could come down to how Michigan’s excellent rushing offense (ranked ninth-best in the nation with 223.8 rushing yards per game) fares against a Bulldogs rushing defense that ranks third in the country, allowing just 81.7 rushing yards per game.
How Georgia Will Cover
Prior to the loss to Alabama, Georgia was untouchable, and that stretch includes blowout wins over then-ranked Arkansas, Auburn and Kentucky. If the Bulldogs can shut down Michigan’s rushing attack, they could cover the spread and earn a potential rematch against the Crimson Tide.
How Michigan Will Cover
Michigan’s offense has scored 47.6 points per game over the team’s last three games, including back-to-back 42-point performances over very good teams in Ohio State and Iowa. Pair that with a top-five defense and there are plenty of signs pointing to a far more competitive game than the betting odds indicate.
Computer Pick: Georgia -8
For more college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.
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