The Colorado State Rams open their 2018 campaign with a three-game homestand, with the first matchup coming against Mountain West Conference rivals the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. The Rams put together a 7-5 season in 2017, eventually losing to Marshall in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl 31-28 to finish the year 7-6, and opened as huge -550 favorites in this game. The Rainbow Warriors went 3-9 last season and come back as +425 underdogs. The season opener had an Sportsbook total of 57.5 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of Colorado State’s last 11 season-Sportsbook games.
- Colorado State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games as a double-digit favorite.
- Hawaii is 2-10 SU and 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games against its conference.
View the Rainbow Warriors vs Rams matchup page
Will Colorado State continue its dominance over Hawaii?
The Rams have won all four contests with the Rainbow Warriors since 2012, including two home games, winning by an average of 19.75 points with their most recent matchup coming last year when the Rams picked up a 51-21 victory. It will be a new look for the Rams this year, as they lost eight of their starters from last year, including three offensive linemen. Additionally, starting quarterback Colin Hill reinjured his ACL and will miss this Week 1 match so former Washington Huskies’ K.J. Carta-Samuels will be under center. Colorado State does return running back Izzy Matthews, though, who averaged 58.3 rushing yards per game, including 95 yards and two touchdowns vs Hawaii.
Hawaii forced to make big changes in offseason
The Rainbow Warriors lost their starting quarterback, starting running back and leading receiver in the offseason. Former quarterback Dru Brown elected to transfer to Oklahoma State while leading receiver Dylan Collie left for BYU. Lastly, starting running back Diocemy Saint Juste, coming off a year in which he set a new single-season school rushing record with 1,510 yards, graduated after the 2017 season. Replacing Brown is sophomore Cole McDonald, who had just nine pass attempts last season, completing five of them for 22 yards. Similarly, Freddy Holly III appears to be the lead back for 2018 and he had only nine rush attempts for 27 yards last year. There could be some major learning pains as the new backfield adjusts to their new roles.
Trends Point to the UNDER and Colorado State Covering
Colorado State has won seven straight games over Hawaii dating back to 1995, with an average margin of victory of 25.14 points, and Sportsbook has the spread Sportsbook at 14 points. Since the start of the 2015 season, Hawaii is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games when it is a double-digit underdog on the road and is 0-12 ATS in its last 12 conference games. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games when they are double-digit favorites at home.
Additionally, Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 57.5 points and the two schools have gone OVER that number in their last four meetings with an average combined score of 68.75. However, Colorado State has gone UNDER in eight of its last 11 Week 1 games, going UNDER 57.5 points in seven of those games. Meanwhile, Hawaii has gone UNDER in 12 of its last 20 road games, including going UNDER 57.5 points just six times.
