Mike Leach’s Washington State squad may have fallen one win shy of a Rose Bowl bid, but in the hearts and minds of the gambling public, the Cougars have accomplished a lot this season. Wazzu finished the regular season 10-2 overall and a nation-best 10-2 against the spread. While they’ve won six out of their past seven games, they’re 2-2 ATS with three UNDERS over their past four contests.
Iowa State has won seven of its last eight heading into bowl season including victories at 25th-ranked Oklahoma State and vs sixth-ranked West Virginia. Despite the 8-4 record, Matt Campbell’s crew was a pedestrian 6-6 against the spread. In their only bowl appearance over the past five seasons, the Cyclones upset Memphis (-3.5), 21-20, in last December’s Liberty Bowl.
Washington State opened as a 1-point favorite, but the spread swelled to Cougars -3.5. Iowa State’s moneyline opened at +210 but dipped to +145, and the point total opened at 54.5 before a tick up to 55. This will be Washington State’s first matchup against a Big 12 team in eight seasons. The Cougars are 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in Big 12 contests.
In 25 previous Alamo Bowls, the average point total has been 49.6 with an average margin of victory of 17.4 points. However, four of the past six Alamo Bowls have been decided by six or fewer points.
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Iowa State’s last 20 games (avg. combined score: 47.25).
- Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs the Big 12.
- Iowa State is 11-47 SU in its last 58 games as underdog.
Iowa State vs Washington State Alamo Bowl Game Center
WHAT WE KNOW, LEARNED & MATCHUPS TO CONSIDER
Washington State – Quarterback Gardner Minshew led the nation in pass yards per game, averaging 373.3 yards per contest. His 70.6 percent completion rate and 36 passing touchdowns also ranked in the top five among FBS quarterbacks. On the season, Iowa State ranked 62nd against the pass in the pass-friendly Big 12 Conference. The Cyclones may also be without defensive backs D’Andre Payne and Datrone Young, who are dealing with upper-body and shoulder injuries, respectively. If they are forced to miss the Alamo Bowl or are limited due to injury, Minshew is in position to torch this secondary.
As for the Cougars defense, opposing quarterbacks completed just 58.5 percent of their passes with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 12 games.
Washington State is 1-2 straight up and against the spread in bowl games over the past three years.
Iowa State – Freshman quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t begin the season as the Cyclones starter but did come up big in those wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Since taking over the starting role, he’s averaged 241.9 pass yards and thrown 16 touchdowns and five picks in eight games.
He’ll likely lean on junior running back David Montgomery, who rushed for 1,000-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. However, as a team, the Cyclones rank 114th in yards per rush attempt at 3.49 and the Cougars rush defense allows just 4.02. So, if Minshew is lighting up the scoreboard and the Cougars are pulling away, the pressure to rally the Cyclones will fall back on Purdy’s freshman shoulders.
To add injury to insult, the Cyclones defense ranks 99th in the FBS in defensive third-down efficiency. Opposing offenses convert 42 percent of the time on third down against ISU and keep the chains moving. Washington State’s offense converts at a 43.8 percent clip – 30th in FBS.
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS FORECAST AND KICKERS
Inside the Alamodome.
Washington State freshman kicker Blake Mazza has connected on 10 of 15 field goals and 56 of 58 extra points this season. Iowa State sophomore kicker Connor Assalley made 34 of 36 extra points and 14 of 20 field goals.
MY LEAN
If you scan Iowa State’s statistical resume: 81st in points scored, 104th in total yards per game, 62nd in passing and 114th in rushing – as members of the offensively friendly Big 12 Conference – you wonder how their offense is going to keep pace with the nation’s top passing team when the Cyclones’ 62nd-ranked pass defense is banged up. It has disaster written all over it.
I’m leaning Washington State by a touchdown-plus, but likely double digits if Iowa State’s defensive backs miss the game due to injury.
