Everyone loves to rip on Jim Harbaugh for not being able to get past Ohio State since coming to Michigan, but let’s remember this will be just his fourth shot at the Buckeyes and his first with his team as the betting favorite. In fact, Saturday’s game in Columbus marks the first time Michigan has been the favorite vs Ohio State since 2011 – the only time it’s won in this matchup since 2003. The good news for Wolverines bettors is while they haven’t been winning SU, Michigan is 4-1 ATS in this matchup since 2013.
- Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs its conference.
- Michigan is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games (avg. winning margin: 26.1).
- The total has gone OVER in Michigan’s last five games vs Ohio State (avg. combined score: 63.2).
Michigan vs Ohio State Game Center
Buckeyes Escape Yet Another Game
Ohio State has not been very Ohio State-like this season, dating back to the preseason scandal and subsequent suspension of head coach Urban Meyer. As a 14-point favorite last week at Maryland, a team with its own internal issues, the Buckeyes needed overtime and a failed overtime two-point convert gamble by the Terrapins to move to 10-1.
However, despite how they’ve gotten here, they are a win away from playing Northwestern in the Big Ten championship, but they’ve been a horrible Big Ten bet, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games.
The Buckeyes are ranked 10th in the country as they’ve been able to survive poor defensive efforts (No. 52 scoring defense, No. 78 passing defense, No. 63 run defense) by outscoring opponents thanks to Dwayne Haskins Jr.’s right arm firing for 3,685 yards as the No. 8 scoring offense has accumulated an average of 41.64 points per game.
League’s Top Pass Defense vs No. 3 Pass Offense
Since a Week 1 loss to No. 3 Notre Dame, Michigan has rattled off 10 consecutive wins while going 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or less after the ATS loss to the Fighting Irish. The biggest reason for Michigan’s success has been its dominance on the defensive side of the ball.
The Wolverines have the nation’s best pass defense, allowing just 123.2 yards per game, and will get a huge test against Dwayne Haskins in The Game. There’s no comparison when trying to compare previous opposing QBs to Haskins. The closest is Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey, who is No. 37 in the country in passing yards but was held to 195 passing yards by the Wolverines last week, his lowest total since Week 3.
Haskins’ lowest Big Ten passing yards totals this season were against Michigan State (227 yards), Nebraska (252 yards) and Penn State (270 yards). Penn State has the No. 23 pass defense in the FBS but Michigan State is No. 83 while Nebraska is tied for No. 92. So, while Michigan hasn’t seen anyone with Haskins’ numbers, Haskins hasn’t seen a defense as good as he’s about to face.
My Best Bet for This Game
I think Michigan covers the 4 points on the road against a porous, fragile Ohio State defense. You can see the pressure on the face of Urban Meyer, something that Buckeyes fans and bettors are not used to, based on the recent success of the program.
On the other sideline, Michigan is gaining confidence by the week and while its defense gets all the credit, the offense has continued to improve throughout the season. Shea Patterson has managed the ball extremely well and entering the final week of the season, Michigan is fourth in the FBS in time of possession while the junior transfer from Ole Miss has the No. 18 passer rating in the FBS.
Karan Higdon will be the difference maker one way or the other for Michigan. He has 10 rushing TDs and rushed for 1,106 yards – only being held under the century mark twice in his 10 games this year. Ohio State is allowing an average of 161.2 yards per game on the ground so Higdon could have a field day on Saturday.
