North Carolina vs Wake Forest Picks & Odds: UNC Visits Wake As Slim Chalk

The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) aim to continue their steady climb up the AP Top 25 rankings with a sixth straight win when they visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-3, 6-3) on Saturday in a clash of ACC conference rivals.

The Tar Heels vaulted two spots to No. 15 in the rankings after topping Virginia 31-28 last weekend. Conversely, the Demon Deacons ride a two-game straight up and against the spread losing streak into Week 11 college football action after dropping a 30-21 decision to NC State. 

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North Carolina vs Wake Forest Sportsbook Odds

The Tar Heels have shortened slightly to 3.5-point favorites since Sportsbook as 3-point chalk, while the total has held steady since Sportsbook at a lofty 76.5. Saturday night’s matchup marks the fourth meeting in as many seasons between these ACC rivals.

The Tar Heels tallied a narrow 58-55 victory in last season’s clash and have now topped the Demon Deacons in four of six tilts, with each of those wins coming on home turf.

High-scoring games have been commonplace in recent dates involving these teams. The total has topped 110 in each of their past two meetings, fueling a steady run for the OVER, which has gone 7-2-1 over their past 10 matchups.

Get the best North Carolina vs Wake Forest odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.

Tar Heels Eking Out Wins by Narrow Margins

For the third time in as many outings, the Tar Heels were forced to overcome a halftime deficit to eke out last weekend’s narrow victory over the Cavaliers. UNC has allowed over 17 points before halftime in their past three outings, forcing them to come up with big efforts on both sides of the ball after recess to extend their current surge. 

Indeed, the Tar Heels’ win streak has been built on the narrowest of margins, with three of the team’s past four victories coming by just three points. That is reflected in the team’s results at the sportsbooks, where they have managed to cover in consecutive games just once while compiling a middling 4-4-1 ATS record this season.

With the Tar Heels struggling at times to contain opposing attacks, the breakthrough performance of freshman quarterback Drake Maye has proved crucial to their success. With his two touchdown passes in last week’s win over Virginia, Maye has now found the end zone in all nine games this season and leads the nation with 31 scores against just three picks.

However, he has enjoyed little support of late from his offensive line, which has allowed 14 sacks over the past four games and 23 overall this season.

Second-Half Letdowns Dooming Demon Deacons

After busting out of the gate to a 6-1 SU start, with their lone defeat coming in overtime against Clemson, the Demon Deacons have cooled off considerably. The team blew two first-half leads last weekend on the way to a 30-21 loss to a Wolfpack squad led by untested freshman pivot MJ Morris.

Overall, the Demon Deacons have been outscored 78-42 during their two-game slide. Generating offense after recess has emerged as a problem, with the Wake offense tallying just 14 total points after the half during their 0-2 run. One particular source of concern has been the recent play of quarterback Sam Hartman. 

The junior has continued to consistently find the end zone, increasing his season total to 24 with two TD strikes last week. However, he also tossed three picks for a second straight week and has been sacked 11 times during the team’s losing streak. On a positive note, Hartman’s chemistry with receiver AT Perry remains. Perry racked up a season-high 159 receiving yards last week, and his one scoring catch gives him five majors over the past six games.

North Carolina: Keys to Win

It will be crucial for the Tar Heels to avoid yet another first-half letdown, especially against a Demon Deacons squad that has scored 108 total points over their past two meetings and has scored 43 or more points on five occasions this season.

The offensive line must also do a far better job of giving quarterback Drake Maye, their Heisman Trophy candidate, far more protection from opposing defenders.

Wake Forest: Keys to Win

While fast starts lifted this team early on, second-half letdowns have been a curse during their current slide. Accordingly, this team must find ways to maintain the intensity that marked a number of their early-season performances.

And like the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons offensive line must find ways to give quarterback Sam Hartman more time and space to make better passing decisions, and end his worrisome stretch of games with at least one pick at three games.

College Football Computer Pick: Wake Forest -3.5

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