The No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set to making their College Football Playoff debut when they take to the gridiron with the No. 2 Clemson Tigers in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. This is the first time these two schools have met since 2015 when Clemson eked out a narrow 24-22 home victory. Both teams are undefeated this year and the Tigers are an 11-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 55 points.
- Clemson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Notre Dame’s last nine games.
- Clemson averages the fifth-most points per game in the nation this season (45.4).
Notre Dame vs Clemson Game Center
Fighting Irish set to make first CFP appearance
It took an undefeated season and wins over four ranked teams for Notre Dame to make its first College Football Playoff appearance. The Fighting Irish opened the season with an impressive home triumph over then-No. 14 Michigan and had narrow victories over Ball State and Vanderbilt through the first three weeks with an average winning margin of 6.67. However, head coach Brian Kelly made a quarterback change in Week 4 from Brandon Wimbush to Ian Book ahead of the Wake Forest game, a move that has paid huge dividends. Since the change, Notre Dame has an average winning margin of 18.63, excluding the Florida State game as Wimbush was under center for that game.
Book has completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,468 yards with 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. Additionally, the Fighting Irish were without starting running back Dexter Williams for the first four weeks of the season and after his return, he rushed for 941 yards and 12 touchdowns. Overall, they average 33.8 points per game to rank 34th in the nation and produce 265.6 passing yards per contest, good for 31st in the NCAA. Defensively, they allow 17.3 points per game, which is the ninth-best mark in college football. Senior defensive lineman Jerry Tillery sets the tone on that side of the ball as he racked up eight sacks, including three forced fumbles.
The Tigers are dangerous on both sides of the ball
Clemson is making its fourth straight College Football Playoff appearance, in a format that is only five years old. The perfect 13-0 season did have a couple of bumps in the road, notably a quarterback controversy between senior Kelly Bryant and freshman Trevor Lawrence. Ultimately the freshman won the job heading into the Week 5 game vs Syracuse. Head coach Dabo Swinney sweated that decision shortly into that Syracuse match as Lawrence got hurt and was forced out of the game with a head injury. In stepped QB Chase Brice to lead “The Drive,” a come-from-behind, 94-yard touchdown march to grab a 27-23 lead with just 41 seconds remaining on the clock for the Orange to attempt a comeback they didn’t manage.
Along with Lawrence under center, the Tigers are led by sophomore running back Travis Etienne, who rushed for 1,463 yards (fifth in the nation) and 21 touchdowns (third). Overall, Clemson’s averaging 45.4 points per game, which is the fifth-most in college football, while allowing just 13.7 points, the second-fewest. The defense is solidified by a mean defensive line and ranked third in the NCAA in allowing just 93 rushing yards per game and was second in sacks with 45, led by junior defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who had 11 sacks this year.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
Notre Dame and Clemson both split their OVER/UNDER record this season by going 6-6, Clemson's Week 1 game vs Furman didn't have a total, and Sportsbook has the Cotton Bowl’s total Sportsbook at 55 points. The Fighting Irish have gone UNDER 55 points in each of their last four games of the regular season, while the Tigers went UNDER that total in three of their last four contests. However, of Notre Dame’s 12 opponents this season, none had the offense that Clemson brings to the table. Clemson’s defense is stout, but the Irish’s two-pronged attack through the air and on the ground is dangerous as well and I anticipate this game to go well OVER 55 points.
My take on Notre Dame vs Clemson
I think this year’s Cotton Bowl is going OVER 55 points as I think both teams are going to find a way to move the ball effectively in this game. Notre Dame has some vulnerabilities stopping the run and that will be amplified with Travis Etienne carrying the ball. Meanwhile, the Tigers have had their secondary picked apart at times, most notably allowing Jake Bentley (South Carolina) to throw for 510 yards and five touchdowns, and if they play like this against Notre Dame, the score will get run up. Overall, two strong offenses colliding and I think this will be a close, high-scoring game.
