A 4-0 start has Notre Dame (1-3 ATS) ranked third in the country, but all of those victories came at home. Things could get tougher in Pittsburgh, where the Irish are just 1-4 ATS in their last five visits. However, the Panthers (3-3 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) have covered just one of their last nine games overall.
- Date/Time: October 24, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Heinz Field
- TV Coverage: ABC
- Sportsbook Odds: Notre Dame -9.5 | O/U 49.5 (Line History)
- Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
You don’t often find the Irish as this slight a favorite. Notre Dame was favored by at least 16 points in each of its first four games this year and has laid less than 10 points just once in its last eight games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has been a double-digit home underdog just once since 2017.
Notre Dame News & Notes
The Fighting Irish had to sweat out a 12-7 victory last week against Louisville, but the stat line suggests it should have been a far more comfortable victory. Notre Dame outgained the Cardinals 239-96 on the ground and had 10 more first downs, but red-zone troubles prevented the Irish from Sportsbook up a larger lead.
The Irish settled for field goals on their first two trips inside the Cardinals’ 20-yard line, then turned the ball over on a fake field-goal attempt on their third. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book also struggled passing the ball in the windy conditions, although his 13-yard TD run on third-and-eight put the Irish ahead for good in the third quarter.
Notre Dame’s defense bailed out the offense by holding the Cardinals to their lowest-scoring output in 18 games under head coach Scott Satterfield. It’s nothing new for the Irish, who now rank fourth in the nation in scoring average allowed at just 11.5 points per contest.
Notre Dame has gone UNDER in 13 of its last 20 games overall and has also gone UNDER against five of six ACC opponents since last September.
Pittsburgh News & Notes
The Panthers might be college football’s top fade right now, covering just one of their last nine games (1-7-1 ATS) dating back to last year. That lone point spread cover came in a 55-0 rout of Austin Peay in their season opener last month, and six of those seven ATS losses came by more than a touchdown.
However, Pittsburgh showed a lot of promising signs in last week’s 31-19 loss at Miami, missing the cover by half a point as an 11.5-point dog. The Panthers moved the ball well throughout, gaining 250 yards through the air and 331 overall, but kicked four field goals from inside the Hurricanes’ 20.
They also did it without the services of senior starting quarterback Kenny Pickett, who missed the game with an ankle injury. Pickett’s status for this week was unknown at the time of writing.
Pittsburgh’s defense matches up well against Notre Dame’s run-heavy offense. The Panthers boast the nation’s top rush defense, allowing just 61.5 yards per game on the ground.
Betting Pick: OVER 50
Both teams moved the ball well last week between the 20s before bogging down in the red zone. If they’re a bit more efficient at finishing drives, I like our chances of going OVER this relatively low number.
- Notre Dame is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games (avg. margin: 22.9).
- Pittsburgh is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games.
- The visiting team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
