The LSU Tigers are ranked fifth in the nation and have not lost at home since the stunner vs Troy nearly a year ago, however, they’ve only covered the spread once at home this year. In fairness, they were 41.5-point faves vs Southeastern Louisiana and 19.5-point favorites last week vs Louisiana Tech. They have a much more manageable 10 points to cover against the porous Ole Miss defense on Saturday night.
- LSU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
- Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta’amu is dealing with a shoulder injury and is probable for Saturday.
- The Ole Miss defense is allowing 505.3 total yards per game.
Ole Miss Has the Edge at Quarterback
Looking at early-season statistics, Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta’amu has thrown for a whopping 1,359 yards and 10 touchdowns through his first four games. His favorite targets have been A.J. Brown (26 REC, 3 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (18 REC, 4 TD) as Ole Miss has scored 161 points in its three wins this season.
LSU’s Joe Burrow has completed just 49 percent of his passes for 731 yards and three touchdowns through LSU’s four wins to open 2018. The six-foot-four junior from Ohio is still finding his way as the starting QB for the Tigers and as he does find his way, LSU relies heavily on the run game.
Tigers running back Nick Brossette has 83 carries for 409 yards for more than 20 carries and 100 yards per game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has tacked on another 208 yards and the two backs have nine TDs between them – five for Brossette and four for Edwards-Helaire.
Defense Will Tell the Tale on Saturday
Ole Miss is among the worst teams in college football when it doesn’t have possession of the pigskin. The Rebels are allowing over 500 yards of total offense per game, including 314.5 yards per game in the air, and 36.6 points against per game. In their only conference game thus far, they were victimized by Alabama for 62 points even though the Crimson Tide put the offense into cruise control in the SECOND QUARTER.
Ole Miss opponents are running for an average of 190.8 yards per game and each of their FBS opponents is in that range as a season average as well. LSU’s offensive strength has been its running attack but the Tigers are only averaging 169.8 yards per game on the ground. That number may increase drastically after Week 5.
LSU has the 25th-ranked pass defense in the FBS, allowing just 182.8 yards through the air so far this season, including games vs Auburn and Miami. The Tigers defense has been tested and has passed the tests so far and is led by Greedy Williams with two interceptions.
My Pick for This Game
The first pick I like for this game is OVER 59.5 points. Ole Miss has allowed more than 40 points in three of its games and has a strong offense. This game could take four hours to play!
For spread bettors, 10 points for LSU is a fair number. The Tigers should be able to hit this target with a combination of the weak Ole Miss defense and LSU’s strong defensive game.
