AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas will host one of the biggest games of Week 1 of the college football schedule as the Auburn Tigers face off against the Oregon Ducks. Oregon comes into this one as the higher seed but is getting just over a field goal against an Auburn team that will have a larger fan contingent and a significant travel advantage.
Oregon Ducks vs Auburn Tigers (Matchup Report)
Date/Time: August 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Sportsbook Odds: Auburn -3.5 | O/U 56 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The movement on the Sportsbook line has been subtle, but significant: Auburn opened as low as -2.5 in some spots but has been bet up to -3.5 with the majority of books. That line should spur at least modest action on the underdogs. The total has also shifted, up 3 points from an opener of 53.
Oregon News & Notes
Second-year head coach Mario Cristobal will be leaning heavily on quarterback Justin Herbert, who helped the Ducks go 9-4 and win the Redbox Bowl but had just five successful covers in 2018. Herbert surprised everyone by returning to Oregon despite throwing for 3,151 yards and 29 touchdowns, and is an intriguing +2000 option to win the Heisman Trophy.
Yet, while the Ducks are almost certain to let it fly on offense on the strength of Herbert’s NFL-caliber arm and a bevy of talented wide receivers, they have a lot of work to do on defense despite showing vast improvement in 2018 under Jim Leavitt. Andy Avalos takes over a defensive unit that returns nine linemen and four of last year’s five primary defensive backs.
Auburn News & Notes
Combine an underachieving offense with one of the best defenses in the country, and it’s no surprise that the Tigers went 5-8 O/U last season. But it’s a different record – specifically, Auburn’s 8-5 SU mark – that the team will be focused on in 2019. And this team has major question marks at QB, where freshman Bo Nix will be called upon to improve the Tigers’ offensive fortunes.
So with the passing game in doubt and the defense once again expected to shine, the Tigers’ 2019 prognosis might ultimately come down to how well the rush attack performs. And Auburn has a major wild card in this regard: Quarterback-turned-wide receiver-turned-running back JaTarvious Whitlow had 787 rushing yards last year in his first taste of backfield action.
Betting Pick
Auburn might have the geographical edge, but Herbert is one of the top quarterbacks in the country – and the massive disparity in QB play should be enough to swing this one in Oregon’s favor. Even if this line shifts back in the Ducks’ favor, we like the Pac-12 team to prevail here.
- Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games.
- The UNDER is 6-1-2 in Auburn’s last 9 neutral-site games.
- The OVER is 4-1-1 in Oregon’s last 6 games vs SEC foes.
