Expect Buckeyes To Win 26th Straight In Big Ten Play

Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has been on a mission since an early-season loss to Oregon, winning its last five games by an average of 41.6 points. The Buckeyes are big favorites to continue that success when they host the reeling Nittany Lions (5-2, 4-3), who have lost eight of the last nine meetings.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

After Penn State was upset at home by Illinois, and Ohio State beat Indiana by 47 points, there wasn’t much question which direction this line was headed. The Buckeyes had moved from 12.5-point favorites to 17.5-point chalk by Sunday night, while the total ticked up slightly to 59.5.

Penn State News & Notes

After starting the year 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, the Nittany Lions have come crashing back to earth with consecutive losses to Iowa and Illinois. The latter defeat came as a 24.5-point home favorite, when Penn State blew an early 10-0 lead and then managed to convert just one of its six two-point conversion attempts in overtime. Illinois held the Nittany Lions to just 62 rushing yards in regulation time.

Issues running the football are nothing new for Penn State, which ranks 101st in the nation with an average of 118.7 rushing yards per game. The Nittany Lions will need more production on the ground to compete with Ohio State, especially if quarterback Sean Clifford is still hampered by an unspecified injury he suffered two weeks ago. Clifford was questionable to suit up against Iowa and then threw just nine passes in the first half.

Penn State’s offense has been held to 24 points or less in three straight games and has cracked the 30-point plateau just twice this season. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 to the UNDER this year and have gone UNDER the total in 10 of their last 12 road games dating back to 2020.

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Ohio State News & Notes

Maybe it hasn’t been against the toughest competition, but the Buckeyes have arguably been the most dominant team in the country since a Week 2 loss to Oregon. Ohio State’s 54-7 rout of Indiana was the Buckeyes’ fifth straight victory by at least 21 points, and they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 41.6 points during that stretch. More importantly for bettors, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four despite laying an average of nearly four touchdowns per contest.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown for 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games while running back TreVeyon Henderson has scored at least two touchdowns in four of his last five. Both of Henderson’s rushing scores last week came in the first half, after which he and several other Ohio State starters took the rest of the day off with the game well in hand.

The Buckeyes have now won 25 straight against Big Ten opponents, and their dominance of the Nittany Lions extends far beyond that. Ohio State has won eight of the last nine meetings by an average of 13.2 points, and Penn State has won just twice in its last 13 visits to Ohio Stadium.

How Penn State Will Cover

The Nittany Lions’ average of 14.7 points against per game is the sixth-lowest in the country, but you can’t count on holding this powerful Ohio State offense in check. If Penn State is going to stay inside this number, its offense may have to score more than 24 points for the first time in a month.

How Ohio State Will Cover

The way the Buckeyes are rolling right now, the only thing that may be able to slow them down is themselves. If Ohio State doesn’t turn the ball over and give Penn State short fields to work with, the Buckeyes shouldn’t have much issue covering this spread.

Computer Pick: Penn State +17.5

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