Navy Favored to Beat SMU at Home for Fifth Straight Time

Navy looks to extend its home dominance of the SMU Mustangs on Saturday in a critical game for each team’s conference title hopes. The Midshipmen, who have won their last four home games vs SMU by an average of nearly 20 points, opened as 4-point favorites over the 8-1 Mustangs.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Navy has been a good bet lately when laying a short number as a host. In their last six home games when favored by 4 points or less, the Midshipmen are 4-1-1 ATS and have won three times by 14 or more.

SMU News & Notes

Defense has been an issue for the 8-1 Mustangs all season, but maybe some time off to work on things will help. One of SMU’s best defensive efforts this year came following a bye week — when the Mustangs held Temple to 21 points — and SMU has covered three of its last four when coming off a bye.

There’s definitely plenty of room for improvement defensively as the Mustangs have allowed 500-plus yards in four of their last five games. Going back to last year, SMU has gone OVER in nine of its last 10 games.

Fortunately for the Mustangs, Navy shouldn’t be able to exploit their biggest weakness. SMU enters this week ranked 124th against the pass, but the Midshipmen are 128th throwing the ball this year.

The Mustangs have been much better defending the run, ranking 29th in the nation, and might be able to at least slow down Navy’s triple-option attack. They did that in last year’s meeting, holding the Midshipmen to 14 points in the first three quarters en route to a 31-30 win that snapped an eight-game losing streak to Navy.

Navy News & Notes

The Midshipmen’s five-game winning streak ended with a giant thud last week when they lost 52-20 at Notre Dame. Turnovers were a huge factor as the Midshipmen put the ball on the turf four times (including three first-half fumbles by QB Malcolm Perry), leading to 24 points for the Irish.

Navy actually finished the game with more first downs than the Irish (20-18), although Notre Dame may have let its foot off the gas down the stretch after building a 45-3 lead midway through the third quarter. “We got our butts whipped and it started with me,” Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo said.

Going back home should help Navy get the ship turned back in the right direction. The Midshipmen have covered five of their last six at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and are on a 6-0 ATS run at home in November.

They’ve also been up to the challenge when hosting teams with winning records, going 13-3 SU in their last 16. Finally, SMU has lost its last four trips to Maryland by an average of nearly 20 points per game.

Betting Pick: Midshipmen -3