The No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners fell only once in the regular season, to the No. 14 Texas Longhorns, and they are playing that game back in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium. Oklahoma has won six of the last seven Big 12 titles, with Texas the only other school to win during that span (there was no championship game played between 2011 and 2016). The Sooners are a 7.5-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 78 points.
- Texas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs Oklahoma.
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Oklahoma’s last 13 games (avg. combined score: 84.62).
- Oklahoma is 6-0 SU in its last six games (avg. winning margin: 14.33).
Sooners bring top-ranked offense into the championship game
After dropping the Red River Showdown 48-45 in Week 6, Oklahoma got back on the win train, closing out the season on a six-game winning streak and averaging 52.67 points per game over that span. This season, the Sooners topped the nation by averaging 50.3 points per game, 1.3 more ppg than second-place Alabama. They have the eighth-best running game, averaging 264.3 rushing yards per game, and the eighth-best passing offense, averaging 319.4 yards through the air.
All this comes from junior quarterback Kyler Murray, the Heisman Trophy hopeful who has thrown for 3,674 yards with 37 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 853 yards and an additional 11 TDs and posting the nation’s best quarterback rating at 96.1. The defense hasn’t exactly held up its end of the bargain, surrendering the 31st-most points per game in the nation at 32.8, including the fourth-most passing yards allowed per game at 286.6.
Longhorns eye first championship in nine years
Texas hasn’t been in a Big 12 championship since 2009 when it earned a narrow 13-12 victory over Nebraska, though of course there wasn’t a Big 12 championship game from 2011 to 2016. The Longhorns also are looking for their first winning streak over the Sooners since winning back-to-back games in 2008 and 2009. Following their Red River Showdown triumph, they stumbled a little bit, dropping two of their next three games, but finished the season off on the right foot on a three-game winning streak. Texas is averaging 31.7 points per game, ranking 46th in college football, and averages 257.4 passing yards per game, which is the 38th-most in the nation – not quite the explosive offense of its opponent.
The offense is run through sophomore quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who threw for 2,774 yards with 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. However, the Longhorns defense is much better than the Sooners unit, surrendering 25.2 points per game, which is the 51st-fewest in the NCAA, and allowing the 36th-fewest rushing yards per game at 136.5. The pass defense has been a bit of an issue, though, yielding the 27th-most yards per game at 255.8.
OVER Trending in the Big 12 Championship game
This game features the No. 1 offense in the nation and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 78 points. The Red River Showdown featured a total of 93 points in that shootout and Oklahoma had an OVER/UNDER record of 10-1-1 this season with an average combined score of 83.17, with seven of the last eight games going OVER 78 points. The Sooners are surrendering the 31st-most points per game, including the fourth-most passing yards per game, while the Longhorns are giving up the 27th-most passing yards per game. I expect another shootout in this game.
My take on Texas vs Oklahoma
I like the OVER 78 points. The teams stood toe-to-toe in Week 6 and racked up 93 points and I expect a similar situation in the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma’s last four games have had a combined score of 95 or more with an average score of 100.5. The Sooners are allowing the 31st-most points per game and I think the Longhorns are going to be able to score at will again. Texas averages the 38th-most passing yards per game at 257.4 and Oklahoma gives up the fourth-most passing yards per game. Oklahoma has the No. 1 offense in the nation and its defense doesn’t hold its own and I anticipate a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair.
