Toledo vs Ohio Picks & Odds: Slumping Rockets Fading Faves in MAC Championship Game

The Ohio Bobcats (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) will be gunning for their first-ever Mid-American Conference title when they take on the slumping Toledo Rockets (7-5, 4-8) on Saturday in this season’s MAC championship game. The Bobcats extended their win streak to seven games with last week’s 38-14 victory over Bowling Green, and also enjoy a steady 8-0 run against the spread. The Rockets saw their late-season woes continue with a 20-14 loss to Western Michigan, extending their SU slide to two games and marking their fifth straight ATS loss.

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Toledo vs Ohio Sportsbook Odds

The Rockets have faded to 1.5-point favorites since Sportsbook at -3.5. The total has also been on the decline, tumbling to 55 after Sportsbook at 60.5. Saturday afternoon’s matchup marks the first-ever meeting between these teams in the MAC championship game and just their second overall clash since 2017. The Rockets rolled to a 35-23 win when they visited Ohio in November of last season, snapping a two-game slide in head-to-head action.

Overall, Toledo has claimed victory in seven of nine dates with the Bobcats since 1995 and has covered in four of seven clashes. While the total has topped 50 in four of six dates, the UNDER maintains a 4-3 edge in their past seven matchups. 

The Rockets have also enjoyed success when battling for the MAC title, winning outright in three of their past four championship game appearances while averaging 41.4 points per game. Conversely, the Bobcats are winless in four previous MAC championship game appearances, averaging just 15.8 points in those four games.

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Shaky Offense Contributing to Rockets’ Woes

The Rockets’ struggles to generate consistent results this season have continued with their current two-game slide. The Rockets stumbled out of the gate last weekend, spotting the Broncos a 10-7 halftime lead while failing to score in the first quarter for the third time in four outings, and the fourth time this season. In addition, they allowed Western Michigan to cash in on big plays, including a pick-six in the second quarter and a huge 63-yard scoring run by Sean Tyler in the third that put the game out of reach.

Quarterback Dequan Finn has continued to struggle with accuracy. The sophomore failed to make it to halftime before getting the hook last weekend, completing just five of 11 pass attempts for a meager 35 yards while tossing two picks. Finn has now completed just 52.6 percent of attempts and thrown for four scores and seven picks over his past three outings. However, freshman Tucker Gleason didn’t do much better in relief, going just 13-for-38 for 200 yards, one score and one pick after taking over under center.

Little help is to be found in the Toledo ground game. Gleason has accounted for each of the team’s three most recent scoring runs, while the team’s leading rusher, Jacquez Stuart, has run for just 15 yards per game over the past three contests after averaging 73.2 yards in his previous five outings and twice topping 100 yards.

Harris Settling in as Bobcats’ Starting Pivot

The Ohio defense has settled down considerably since surrendering 42 points per game during a shaky 2-3 start. The Bobcats have now allowed just 18 points per game over their past six contests and have claimed victory by double-digit margins six times during their 7-0 run, including a pair of lopsided wins as betting underdogs.

Last week’s decisive win over Bowling Green gave this team a particular lift considering it came in the wake of a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke. With Rourke sidelined by a knee injury, sophomore CJ Harris impressed in the first start of his collegiate career, running for three touchdowns and passing for a fourth while leading the assault on the Green Falcons.

Harris’ ascension to the starter’s role bolsters an impressive Bobcats ground game led by running back Sieh Bangura. The freshman marched for 96 yards and one score in last weekend’s win over Bowling Green and has now averaged 129.7 rushing yards over his past three outings while tallying four scoring runs and one TD catch.

Toledo: Keys to Win

Simply put, the Rockets must be better on both sides of the ball if they are to claim their fourth all-time MAC title. Bringing a halt to the recent horrific passing performances by both Dequan Finn and Tucker Gleason is obviously a priority. And while they limited the Broncos to just 188 total yards last week, they must do better against the rush after allowing nine scoring runs over their past five games.     

Ohio: Keys to Win

With CJ Harris making a seamless transition to the starter’s role, the Bobcats are poised to do what they were already doing so well. That includes seizing an early lead and focusing on a ground game led by the dual-threat pivot. However, this squad must also clean up some of the play that has resulted in 16 giveaways over the past six games.

College Football Computer Pick: Ohio +1.5

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