The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns and Tulane Green Wave both hope to ride the momentum from strong regular-season finishes when they clash in the AutoNation Cure Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 15, in Orlando. ULL closed the campaign with three straight victories before giving Appalachian State a tough game as 17.5-point underdogs in the Sun Belt championship game, trailing by eight points late in the fourth quarter before eventually succumbing 30-19.
Tulane’s also on a nice roll going into bowl season, winning four of its last five games — including a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Navy in its season finale to secure bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record. Tulane has won five of the seven all-time meetings between these programs, most recently a wild 41-39 victory over the Cajuns two years ago in Tulane, and is a 3.5-point fave to win this one as well. But regardless of who wins or covers the spread in this clash, the big Sportsbook will be the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, which has received more than $3 million in proceeds from the Cure Bowl since 2015.
- Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Tulane’s last six games (avg. combined score: 51.83).
- Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs Tulane.
Tulane vs Louisiana-Lafayette Game Center
IMPROVEMENT ON D KEYS CAJUNS’ MIDSEASON TURNAROUND
Coming off three consecutive sub-.500 seasons, the Ragin’ Cajuns weren’t expected to do much in 2018. And after starting the year with three losses in four games, expectations dropped even further, especially when one of those losses came at home against Coastal Carolina, a team that went just 2-6 in Sun Belt games.
But first-year coach Billy Napier, a former assistant under Nick Saban, managed to turn things around in a hurry. The Cajuns covered the spread in a 56-14 loss at Alabama (ULL was a 49-point dog), then went on to win six of their next nine games. None of the losses were bad ones, either — two of them came against Appalachian State, with Lafayette covering the spread by a combined margin of 20.5 points, and the other came as 7.5-point road dogs at Troy.
Although the Cajuns’ season-long defensive numbers don’t look that impressive (96th in yards allowed, 105th in points allowed and 107th against the run), better play from their stop unit keyed their late-season surge. The Cajuns have held four of their last five opponents to 30 points or less, going UNDER in four of those five outings as well.
TULANE’S NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR FAMILIAR WITH LAFAYETTE
Tulane stamped its ticket to the bowl season with a late touchdown and two-point conversion to beat Navy 29-28 in its regular-season finale, but the dramatic comeback wasn’t enough to save the job of offensive coordinator Doug Ruse. Head coach Willie Fritz announced three days later that Ruse had been handed his walking papers, and the Green Wave announced the hiring of new OC Will Hall on December 7, just eight days before the Cure Bowl.
That short turnaround won’t be enough time for Hall to overhaul the Tulane attack, so we can expect it to look similar to the run-heavy attack that finished 93rd in the nation in points scored this season (25.7). However, Tulane’s defense could benefit from Hall’s familiarity with the Louisiana-Lafayette program. Prior to serving the past season with Memphis as the team’s associate head coach/tight ends coach, Hall spent 2017 as the offensive coordinator of the Ragin’ Cajuns.
WHY I’M EXPECTING A LOW-SCORING START
This is Lafayette’s sixth bowl game in eight years, but the Cajuns will still be in unfamiliar territory when they take the field in Orlando. ULL’s previous five bowl appearances were all in the New Orleans Bowl, when the Cajuns enjoyed a significant advantage in support from a pro-Louisiana crowd. Without the emotional edge that they’re accustomed to having, I can see the Lafayette players coming out a bit slow in this one.
Tulane’s been a slow starter all year (its 11.9-point average in the first half ranks 94th in the nation) and now the Green Wave offense has to adjust to a new play-caller on the sidelines. Expecting two in-form defenses to set the tone early, I’m backing the first-half UNDER 29.5.
