A convincing win over Colorado last weekend has the Washington Huskies back on track in their quest to win the Pac-12 North title. They’ll look to move one step closer to that goal Saturday as they visit the California Golden Bears. The Huskies suffered a major setback two weeks ago with a 30-27 overtime loss to Oregon, but relied on their trademark stingy defense to hold the Buffaloes to just 144 passing yards in the 27-13 win. Washington is -10.5 for Saturday’s date with Cal; the total has not been released.
It has been a strange season for Washington, which has a solid 6-2 SU mark but is just 2-6 ATS through eight games. But that cover trend could be reversed Saturday against a Bears team that saw its three-game losing streak come to an end with a 49-7 win over lowly Oregon State on Saturday. It was a big win for Cal, which covered easily as an 8.5-point fave; it had failed to cover in each of its previous three games, losing by a combined score of 103-48 despite being an outright fave in two of those games.
- Washington is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs Cal.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Washington’s last eight games.
- Cal is 1-5 SU in its last six games vs its conference.
Washington vs California Game Center
Bears Must Overcome Red-Zone Ineptitude
The Golden Bears offense has been a work-in-progress for the majority of the season, coming into Saturday’s home encounter with Washington ranked in a tie for 112th nationally in scoring offense (23.0 points per game). A major reason for their scoring struggles can be traced to their struggles in the red zone, where they rank 121st in Division I with a 72.7 percent success rate.
Even when Cal is moving the football, it still underwhelms inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Bears scored three red-zone touchdowns against Oregon State, but also had a fumble on the two-yard line that was recovered by the Beavers. And that clumsiness with the football won’t fly against a Washington team that has limited foes to 13 touchdowns on 20 trips inside the 20.
Look for the Huskies to bring the defense Saturday night – and even if Cal does reach the red zone, there’s no guarantee the Bears will be able to convert given their season-long struggles. The UNDER on the Bears team total is a good option in this one.
Huskies Enjoy Long Drives
This statement might be true for certain sled-pulling dogs, but it also applies to Washington as well. The visitors come into the new week ranked just outside the top 30 in average time of possession, thanks in large part to a lethal combination of a productive and versatile offense and a tenacious defense that allows the 10th-fewest points per game in the country (16.0).
One other aspect working in Washington’s favor: an incredible third-down conversion rate that has allowed the Huskies to extend drives and keep opposing defenses on the field. The Huskies have made good on a whopping 51 percent of their third-down chances (49 of 96). Only eight other teams in the country have been better on third down entering Week 9.
The Huskies should once again control the time of possession game against the offensively inconsistent Bears, which gives them a solid opportunity to cover for just the third time in nine games this season.
My Pick: Let’s Go Low
Whether you’re looking at Washington’s 2018 season or at the historical matchup between these two teams, there is one major trend that stands out: the Huskies have been a sensational UNDER option. Washington is a sizzling 1-7 OVER/UNDER in eight games so far this season, with four of those games going UNDER by seven or more points.
Add in the fact that the teams have cashed the UNDER in eight of their last nine meetings – including last year’s 38-7 Washington win at Cal – and there’s a compelling case to be made for the UNDER here. I like this as the strongest play of the game, given Cal’s struggles on offense and Washington’s consistently dominant defense.
