West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Will Grier (7) throws a pass during the first quarter of the college football game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the West Virginia Mountaineers on November 10, 2018, at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV.

Ain’t No Mountain(eer Total) High Enough

As the West Virginia Mountaineers head to Stillwater, Oklahoma to play the Oklahoma State Cowboys, it’s fitting that a Wild West shootout is expected between two of the top 13 producing offenses in the country. No. 7 West Virginia opens as a 5.5-point favorite against a Cowboys team that narrowly lost to No. 6 Oklahoma in a 95-point thriller at Norman in the Week 11 Bedlam game.

SHARK BITES
  • The total has gone OVER in West Virginia’s last three games vs its conference.
  • Oklahoma State has the No. 97 scoring defense in the FBS (31.7 ppg).
  • West Virginia is averaging 49 points per game since its bye week.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Game Center

QBs Grier and Cornelius Will be the Center of Attention

The Big 12 is known for potent offenses and there are few offenses more potent in the country than West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

Taylor Cornelius has the fifth-highest passing yards total with 3,133 yards and a 151.6 QB rating. He had a season-high 501 yards vs Oklahoma and had three passing touchdowns in the loss. There could be even more pressure on Cornelius this week if RB Justice Hill, who left the Oklahoma game, is unable to go.

Will Grier has been outstanding for West Virginia this season with 9.9 yards per attempt and a 180.7 QB rating (both third in FBS behind Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa).

Cowboys Defense Hasn’t Gotten it Done

Fatigue is likely beginning to be a factor for the Oklahoma State defensive eleven as only a handful of units have actually spent more time on the field than they have.

Oklahoma State has the No. 97 scoring defense and No. 102 passing defense and the Cowboys will be under duress against the No. 10 scoring offense and No. 5 passing attack in the FBS.

It’s no surprise, then, that despite high totals, Oklahoma State bettors have seen the OVER cash in four of the Cowboys’ last six games, including in a game that closed at 80.5 last week.

Despite the amount of time they’ve spent on the field, the Cowboys defense has just five interceptions and five fumble recoveries – both totals are well below average. They do, however, have 36 sacks, tied for third in the nation.

My Pick for This Game

The total opened at 71 for this game and has since moved to 73. Even with that number, the public is unanimously betting the OVER. This is creeping up into an uncomfortably high territory, so if you want to bet the OVER on this game, do it sooner than later. West Virginia is averaging 49 points per game in its last three outings and the OVER has cashed each time.

I think West Virginia -5.5 is the spread play here for sure. Will Grier has been just as good as the other top guys in the country and is still a candidate for the Heisman Trophy. There are two big reasons for a Mountaineers pick in this game:

One, if Justice Hill is out, there will be a heavier reliance on the passing game for Oklahoma State – a passing game that West Virginia can focus on. If he’s in, West Virginia is quite content with its No. 22 rushing defense.

Two, West Virginia has the No. 25 scoring defense in the FBS as opposed to the No. 97 scoring defense on the opposite sideline. Even if the offenses are a wash, the West Virginia defense should provide the difference.

The total has gone OVER in West Virginia’s last three games vs its conference.away Oklahoma State has the No. 97 scoring defense in the FBS (31.7 ppg).home West Virginia is averaging 49 points per game since its bye week. away
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