The 6-6 BYU Cougars look to flex their defensive muscles at Albertsons Stadium as they collide with the 7-5 Western Michigan Broncos in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Each team is appearing in its first bowl game since 2016, when BYU won in the Poinsettia Bowl and Western Michigan lost in the Cotton Bowl. The Cougars are a 12-point favorite for this game with the total Sportsbook at 49 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of BYU’s 12 games this season.
- BYU allows the 25th-fewest rushing yards per game in the nation this season (129.4).
- Western Michigan averages the 32nd-most rushing yards per game in the nation this season (204.6).
BYU vs Western Michigan Game Center
Cougars look to extend strong spread play
BYU played to a 6-6 record this season, finishing .500 or better for the 13th time over its last 14 seasons, after coming off a disappointing 4-9 record last year. The Cougars made a quarterback change midway through the season after going 3-3 with senior QB Tanner Mangum at the helm. The Idaho native threw for 1,042 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions, completing 61.5 percent of his passes in his six games as starter.
Head coach Kalani Sitake elected to turn the reins over to freshman QB Zach Wilson, who tossed 1,197 yards with seven TDs and three picks, completing 62 percent of his attempts when he was the lead QB. Wilson was able to spread the field a little better than Mangum, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt vs Mangum’s 5.7. The Cougars looked to have found another gear down the stretch, winning two of their last three games but choking away a 20-point lead in the second half to longtime rival Utah in the Holy War finale, with the Utes earning a 35-27 win.
They were a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games, covering as double-digit underdogs in the loss to Utah and in a 21-16 setback at Boise State. This season the Cougars averaged the 37th-fewest points per game at 25.4, but they averaged 31 ppg with Wilson at the helm compared with 21.17 ppg behind Mangum. Defensively, BYU surrendered the 28th-fewest ppg in the nation at 21.8, including the 25th-fewest rushing yards per game at 129.4.
Broncos were dealt a blow late in the season
Western Michigan stormed out of the gate to a 6-2 start through its first eight games of the season, rolling teams with an average of 36.38 points per game. However, misfortune struck in Week 9 on the first drive of the match vs Toledo as starting QB Jon Wassink was tackled and tore ligaments in his ankle that required season-ending surgery. In stepped freshman Kaleb Eleby, who was at the helm for the final four games of the season – Western Michigan went 1-3, with its only win coming over Northern Illinois.
The Broncos, scoring 36.38 ppg behind Wassink, averaged just 25 ppg with Eleby as the signal-caller. Additionally, they were averaging 249.25 passing yards per game with Wassink under center vs 229.25 with Eleby as the starter. Overall, the offense carried the load for the Broncos this season by averaging 33.2 ppg, led by a pair of running backs who spearheaded a rushing attack that piled up 204.6 yards per game, the 32nd-best mark in the nation. Senior Jamauri Bogan found the end zone 15 times and rushed for 702 yards, while junior LeVante Bellamy ran for 1,172 yards and added six touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Broncos had a hard time keep points off the board, surrendering the 28th-most ppg in college football at 33.3 and most notably gave up 43.25 ppg through their last four games after Wassink was out of the lineup. With this woeful defense in those games, the OVER hit in each with an average combined score of 70.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 49 points, and BYU and Western Michigan have signs that point toward the OVER. The Cougars went UNDER in four of the last six games since their quarterback change, but five of those contests went OVER 49 points and they averaged 31 points per game over that span. Meanwhile, with their defense allowing an average of 43.25 ppg, the Broncos went OVER in each of their last four games, with an average combined score of 70.
The big question mark for this total is if Western Michigan can score on BYU’s defense as it has only averaged 25 points per game in the four games that Eleby has been under center, but I think the Cougars are going to be able to pile on the points on the Broncos and may carry the OVER themselves.
My take on BYU vs Western Michigan
I like the OVER 49 points for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Western Michigan’s defense is allowing an average of 43.25 ppg through its last four games and since BYU made a QB change midway through the season, it has averaged 31 ppg, with five of those games going OVER 49 points.
Meanwhile, the Broncos only had one game all season go UNDER 49 points, when the combined score was 45 against Central Michigan. I think Zach Wilson will be able to move the ball at will against Western Michigan and BYU is going to put up a pile of points and will need Western Michigan to chip in just a few to hit the OVER.
