Trying to predict Aaron Rodgers’ future is like taking shots in the dark.
But, according to the oddsmakers, it certainly seems like the New York Jets have a shot at the future Hall of Famer if Rodgers changes teams this offseason. They may not be the most likely destination, but if the Jets nab Rodgers, they’d become serious Super Bowl contenders for the first time in at least a decade (probably longer).
Aaron Rodgers Next Team Odds
|Las Vegas Raiders||-300|
|New York Jets||+200|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1400|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1600|
|New England Patriots||+2000|
Odds as of February 14, 2023
As the second-most likely destination, per the odds, the Jets have an implied 33.33 percent chance of landing Rodgers if the Packers move their QB this summer.
What Would Rodgers Bring to the Jets?
Rodgers certainly isn’t at his peak powers, but he’d bring a quarterback competence the Jets haven’t had in years. Even in a “down year” for Rodgers last year, he would’ve improved on the Jets’ QB play, which was arguably the worst in the NFL.
At worst, Rodgers is a more experienced and refined version of Mike White, who nearly carried the Jets into the playoffs last year after taking over from Zach Wilson. He may not be taking deep shots often anymore, but he’s efficient in the red zone and scores more often than he turns the ball over. At his best, Rodgers is a four-time MVP who almost never throws interceptions and has led the NFL in passer rating in two of the last three years.
Most importantly, Rodgers has the highest upside of any available QB. With the foundations of a good team, the Jets could play it safe and bring in a Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr at QB to take a step forward next year. But trading for Rodgers would give them that same safe step with a Super Bowl ceiling.
|Stat||Aaron Rodgers (2022)||All Jets QBs (2022)|
|Yards Per Attempt||6.8||6.4|
|Total Passing Yards||3,695||4,040|
Rest Of The Recipe Is There
For Jets teams of the past, it wouldn’t have made sense to trade a few draft picks for a veteran QB. But this New York team is truly a quarterback away from contention.
Around the QB they have running back Breece Hall, who was on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry prior to injury. They also have the guy who actually won the OROY award in WR Garrett Wilson, as well as Corey Davis and Elijah Moore at receiver.
But the real strength of this Jets team is the defense, ranking within the league’s top three in points against, yards against and passing yards against.
If the Jets offense had managed even the league-average points per game (21.2), they would’ve posted a better point differential than five playoff teams. Aaron Rodgers may not be his MVP candidate self anymore, though he won the award just a season ago, but he can certainly deliver New York that average offense it needs.
Threats To Lure Rodgers Away
Unless he gets lost in a darkness retreat, there are two other teams that could realistically prevent Rodgers from ending up a Jet: the Packers and Raiders.
The Packers’ narrative has played out the last few offseasons already. Rodgers teases an exit, the Packers tease that they’re prepared to move on and then both sides figure it out, reshuffle a contract and play another season of football together. If you’re asking me where Rodgers is most likely to play next season, it’s still Green Bay.
The other trade destination that’s gotten a lot of buzz is Las Vegas. Former Packers receiver Davante Adams has been open and loud about his recruitment of Rodgers, the Raiders are going to need a new QB after releasing Carr, and Rodgers is a born-and-bred West Coast guy. The fit makes sense, if the Raiders are willing to cough up the picks.
If the Jets miss out on Rodgers, they can turn to other options like Carr or even take a big swing at Lamar Jackson. But Rodgers is the best fit. He won’t cost as many picks as Jackson and has an upside Carr hasn’t reached. If the Jets pry away the Packers QB, there will be long-awaited playoff football for the green New York team.