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How NFL Teams Fare ATS After Double-Digit Wins or Losses in Week 1

NFL Week 1 Double-Digit Losers September 10 Matt Ryan

Seven teams got beat by double digits in Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season and now we’re seeing inflated spreads for Week 2 due to the immediate overreaction and then overcorrection of odds. But over the last five seasons, the teams that got wrecked by 10 points or more in their opening game have covered the spread 63 percent of the time in Week 2.

Since the start of the 2014 season, there have been 34 instances of teams losing by double-digit points in Week 1 and their record is 21-12-1 ATS for Week 2. That record seemed so dubious that I had to double-check the result myself from our stats guy (shout-out to Will!).

See the table below that illustrates this trend and potential angles you could take advantage of for Week 2:

Double-Digit Losers In Week 1

SinceSU RecordATS RecordO/U Record
20182-4 (33.3%)4-2 (66.7%)3-3 (50.0%)
20168-11 (42.1%)11-8 (57.9%)8-10-1 (44.4%)
201418-16 (52.9%)21-12-1 (63.6%)14-19-1 (42.4%)

As you can see, the ATS percentage doesn’t shift much based on the sample size of last year, the last three seasons and the last five seasons. Now, this isn’t me saying to take out a second mortgage and put it on the Dolphins +19 spread vs the Patriots but there is some merit to projecting a bounce-back from teams in Week 2 by them keeping games close or winning outright (52.9 percent over last five years).

The seven teams that lost by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.

Double-Digit Winners In Week 1

We wouldn’t be much of an authority on odds and trends if we didn’t at least look at the flip side and see how teams do after crushing an opponent in Week 1. Based on the last five seasons, teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 have only covered in 45.5 percent of their games in Week 2.

See the table below for 2018, the last three seasons and last five seasons:

SinceSU RecordATS RecordO/U Record
20183-3 (50.0%)3-3 (50.0%)3-3 (50.0%)
201610-9 (52.6%)9-9-1 (50.0%)9-8-2 (52.9%)
201416-18 (47.1%)15-18-1 (45.5%)17-15-2 (53.1%)

As evidenced in the table above, there’s a regression from those winners that is likely because opposing defenses now have game footage that can pinpoint weaknesses and they won’t be caught off guard like Week 1 victims.

It’s also because of inflated spreads that are likely not a true representation of how those teams are ATS. For reference, the seven teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.

To see the most recent betting odds for Week 2, check out our NFL Odds Page.