Eight teams got beaten by double digits in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season and now we’re seeing inflated spreads for Week 2 due to the immediate overreaction and then overcorrection of odds. But over the last six seasons, the teams that got wrecked by 10 points or more in their Sportsbook game have covered the spread 62.5 percent of the time in Week 2.
Since the start of the 2014 season, there have been 41 instances of teams losing by double-digit points in Week 1 and their record is 25-15-1 ATS for Week 2. That record seemed so dubious that I had to double-check the result myself from our stats guy (shout-out to Will!).
See the table below that illustrates this trend and potential angles you could take advantage of for Week 2:
NFL Week 1 Double-Digit Losers In Week 2
| Year | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 4-3 (57.1%) | 1-6 (14.3%) |
| 2018 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 4-2 (66.7%) | 3-3 (50%) |
| 2017 | 5-5 (50%) | 6-4 (60%) | 3-6-1 (33.3%) |
| 2016 | 1-2 (33.3%) | 1-2 (33.3%) | 2-1 (66.7) |
| 2015 | 5-2 (71.4%) | 5-2 (71.4%) | 3-4 (42.9%) |
| 2014 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 5-2-1 (71.4%) | 3-5 (37.5%) |
| TOTAL | 21-20 (51.2%) | 25-15-1 (62.5%) | 15-25-1 (37.5%) |
| PROFIT ($100 Bets) | +$738.79 | +$775.00 | +$772.73 |
As you can see, the ATS percentage doesn’t shift much based on the sample size of last year and over the last six seasons. Now, this isn’t me saying to take out a second mortgage and put it on the Houston Texans as 7-point dogs to Baltimore.
However, there is some merit to projecting a bounce-back from teams in the second week by them keeping games close or winning outright (51.2 percent over last six years). These games also fit the criteria where you can take the spread and sprinkle on the underdog’s moneyline too as evidenced by the moneyline profit.
Another factor that bettors may not be considering is taking the UNDER in these games. It’s hitting at 62.5 percent and would have given you $772.73 in profit if you had blindly taken the UNDER each time.
The seven teams that lost by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Texans, Falcons, Jets, Dolphins, Eagles, Browns, Buccaneers and Giants.
NFL Double-Digit Sportsbooks In Week 1
We wouldn’t be much of an authority on odds and trends if we didn’t at least look at the flip side and see how teams do after crushing an opponent in Week 1. Based on the last six seasons, teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 have only covered in 47.5 percent of their games in Week 2.
See the table below for the last six seasons and overall records:
NFL Week 1 Double-Digit Sportsbooks In Week 2
| Year | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5-2 (71.4%) | 4-3 (57.1%) | 3-4 (42.9%) |
| 2018 | 3-3 (50%) | 3-3 (50%) | 3-3(50%) |
| 2017 | 5-5 (50%) | 4-5-1 (44.4%) | 5-4-1 (55.6%) |
| 2016 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | 1-1-1 (50%) |
| 2015 | 4-3 (57.1%) | 4-3 (57.1%) | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| 2014 | 2-6 (25%) | 2-6 (25%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| TOTAL | 21-20 (51.2%) | 19-21-1 (47.5%) | 19-20-2 (48.7%) |
| PROFIT ($100 Bets) | -$465.24 | -$371.95 | -$81.82 |
Evident in the table above, 2019 seemed like an outlier and in previous years, there was typically a regression from those double-digit Sportsbooks. That’s likely because opposing defenses would have had game footage that could pinpoint weaknesses and they wouldn’t be caught off guard like Week 1 victims.
It’s also because of inflated spreads that are likely not a true representation of the quality of those teams. For reference, the seven teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Chiefs, Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, Washington, Ravens, Saints and Steelers.
To see the most recent betting odds for Week 2 of the NFL, check out our NFL Odds Page.
