NFL MVP Odds: Jordan Love is the Answer

We're so close to real games NFL fans, so let's dive into all the latest NFL MVP odds.

After Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson ran away with his second MVP award last season, the race for the 2024-25 NFL MVP is nearly underway, with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes once again the favorite.

NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of July 26

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson took home his second MVP trophy last season. The former Louisville star lit up NFL defenses while tossing for 3,678 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go along with 821 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. That being said, he now sits fifth on the 2024 NFL MVP odds board, while Mahomes' +500 odds imply a 16.67% chance he will win his third MVP award this season.

NFL MVP Value Pick: Jordan Love +1400

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is a fantastic value play for NFL MVP. While he's "holding in" for a new contract, Love is present at Packers camp and is participating in everything but live practice. Packers General Manager Brian Gutekunst, head coach Matt Lafleur and the Utah State product himself have all been publicly in agreement that a deal is close. He's exactly the type of player you want to be targeting with you pre-season NFL MVP bets, and looks poised for a massive second season in Green Bay's explosive offense.

From weeks 10-18 Love led the Packers to an elite 2.49 points per drive. Top targets Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks all return healthy, and with another year of experience.

According to Pro Football Focus, Love threw for 32 touchdowns while generating the 29th lowest turnover worthy play rate. He was second in EPA per dropback during the aforementioned week 10-18 stretch and was seventh in EPA per dropback under pressure in his first season as a starter.

Importantly, Love possesses top level arm talent, and the size and athleticism to make plays outside of the pocket. He's displayed the physical attributes of the elite NFL quarterbacks, and is a great bet to continue his ascension in his second full year as a starter.

Deep Sleeper MVP Pick: Aaron Rodgers (+2500)

From the Packers' future, to their past. I still think Aaron Rodgers has one more amazing season to show us.

Just two years ago, Rodgers was coming off consecutive MVP seasons with one of the best runs we've seen from a QB. He led the league in touchdown rate, interception rate, QBR, and passer rating in both those seasons. We can shrug off 2022 as unmotivated Rodgers with already one foot outside Green Bay (which I'm willing to do) and the 2023 season season was washed away with injury. So, maybe Rodgers still is that MVP guy?

I get that he's 41, but the Jets have loaded up the offensive line around him, he's got Garrett Wilson to catch balls, and I'm sure the outspoken QB is looking to prove something. A motivated Rodgers, even at 41, is a dangerous thing. At +2500, give me that MVP value.

NFL MVP Winner History

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy & Trends

Keep in mind, Lamar Jackson was +1400 to take home the award at this time last year. Going further back, Mahomes was +800 in 2022, followed by Aaron Rodgers at +800 in 2021, and Rodgers at +3000 in 2020. The electric Jackson was +4000 prior to his spectacular 2019 breakout season. Before that, Mahomes the magician was a longshot before his own breakout season at +3525. All of this to say, there is value on the NFL MVP futures board if you look further down the odds.

All you have to do is determine which quarterback you think will breakout in 2024. No other position has taken home the MVP trophy since Adrian Peterson's spectacular 2,000 yard campaign in 2012. The odds of a non-quarterback winning the award are so long that San Francisco 49ers standout Christian McCaffrey currently sits 19th on the odds board at +5000. Having said that, McCaffrey put up over 2,000 total yards and scored 21 touchdowns in 2023 and finished third in MVP voting.

So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP handicapping, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and perhaps switch gears during the season if a non-QB really starts to separate. Historically, the two largest factors that determine the NFL MVP are touchdowns and team wins.

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. Thus, we're searching for a quarterback that has a chance to lead this team to a high number of wins, while contributing a high number of touchdowns in those victories.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Sportsbooks update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

Teams With the most NFL MVPs

The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never produced an NFL MVP.