The NFL’s version of the Final Four is here and these games are absolutely stacked. This season’s conference championships also present a serious challenge for bettors as clear cases can be made for any of the four teams to cover the spread or win straight up. Nailing down a totals pick isn’t exactly a walk in the park either considering weather could be a factor in each matchup.
One thing that is pretty clear-cut, however, is that home teams have dominated this round since 2014, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS. Another standout trend that favors the home team could have an impact on the Bucs, who are playing their third consecutive playoff road game. Since 1986, there have been 15 instances of an NFL team playing three straight road playoff games. The previous teams went just 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS. Over the last eight instances, they’re 1-7 SU and ATS.
The home team is 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 conference finals games.
The lack of success for visitors in this round shouldn’t come as much of a shock. Playing on the road in January can’t be easy, and the home team in most of these games will always be better on paper as evidenced by their higher seed.
But, like I often point out, the past doesn’t always predict the future and all heavily slanted trends eventually regress, so your best bet is to look at each game individually and make your bet based on how the teams match up.
Another great bet in life is to not consume any liquids late into the evening as this will interrupt a night of sleep when you need to wake up in the middle of the night to empty your bladder in a dark bathroom. You’ll win every time by following this rule, however, nights of hard partying must be treated differently as cut-off times for liquor consumption are difficult to adhere to.
Good luck this weekend (unless you’re betting the opposite of my picks, which will be unveiled on Friday’s Guys & Bets show)!
Conference Championships Stats and Trends:
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