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NFC and AFC Championship Betting Primer

NFL Conference Championship trends and stats are here!

The NFL’s version of the Final Four is here and these games are absolutely stacked. This season’s conference championships also present a serious challenge for bettors as clear cases can be made for any of the four teams to cover the spread or win straight up.  Nailing down a totals pick isn’t exactly a walk in the park either considering weather could be a factor in each matchup.

One thing that is pretty clear-cut, however, is that home teams have dominated this round since 2014, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS. Another standout trend that favors the home team could have an impact on the Bucs, who are playing their third consecutive playoff road game. Since 1986, there have been 15 instances of an NFL team playing three straight road playoff games. The previous teams went just 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS. Over the last eight instances, they’re 1-7 SU and ATS.

The home team is 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 conference finals games.

The lack of success for visitors in this round shouldn’t come as much of a shock. Playing on the road in January can’t be easy, and the home team in most of these games will always be better on paper as evidenced by their higher seed.

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But, like I often point out, the past doesn’t always predict the future and all heavily slanted trends eventually regress, so your best bet is to look at each game individually and make your bet based on how the teams match up.

Another great bet in life is to not consume any liquids late into the evening as this will interrupt a night of sleep when you need to wake up in the middle of the night to empty your bladder in a dark bathroom. You’ll win every time by following this rule, however, nights of hard partying must be treated differently as cut-off times for liquor consumption are difficult to adhere to. 

Good luck this weekend (unless you’re betting the opposite of my picks, which will be unveiled on Friday’s Guys & Bets show)!

Conference Championships Stats and Trends:

Buccaneers at Packers
  • Since 1986, there have been 15 instances of an NFL team playing three straight road playoff games – the situation Tampa is in on Sunday. The previous teams went just 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS. Over the last eight instances, they're 1-7 SU and ATS.
  • Green Bay ranks first in time of possession. Tampa Bay is 21st.
  • These teams rank first and second in points per play.
  • Green Bay ranks first in third-down conversion percentage. Tampa Bay is 18th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • Green Bay leads the NFL in points per game and average scoring margin at home. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in points per game and average scoring margin on the road.
  • The Bucs rank 25th in opponent completion %. Aaron Rodgers led the NFL in completion % during the regular season.
  • The Bucs are first in yards allowed per rush attempt. Green Bay is 22nd.
  • Road teams are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in conference championship games since 2014.
  • The Buccaneers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 16.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in 25 of the Buccaneers' last 35 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.94)
  • The Packers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 14.86)
  • The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
  • The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the playoffs.
  • The Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Packers are 5-0 SU in their last five games in the playoffs as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers' last six games in the playoffs.
Bills at Chiefs
  • The Bills are 17-1 on 6-point teasers this season.
  • These teams rank second and third in third-down conversion % and second and fifth in yards per play.
  • Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in opponent red-zone TD conversion %.
  • Buffalo ranks 25th in yards allowed per rush attempt. KC rushed for 245 yards in their regular-season matchup.
  • The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Road teams are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in conference championship games since 2014.
  • The Bills are 8-0 SU in their last eight games. (Avg winning margin: 17.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bills' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 54.0)
  • The Bills are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in January.
  • The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Chiefs are 24-2 SU in their last 26 games.
  • The Chiefs are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Chiefs are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games in the playoffs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Bills' last 13 games on the road vs the Chiefs.
  • The favored team is 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS in the last 20 games in this matchup.