Is Jimmy Garoppolo underrated?

NFL Betting Analysis: Is Jimmy Garoppolo Underrated?

A quarterback with two Super Bowl rings, a high-60s career completion percentage and a nearly two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio. Not bad, right?

That seems like the type of NFL QB that teams should be clamoring over — offering up first-round picks and then locking them up with a major contract. Well, not for Jimmy Garoppolo.

Despite a 33-14 career record and over 3,800 passing yards and 20-plus touchdowns in two of the last three years, Garoppolo is on the outs in San Francisco. With the 49ers likely turning to young Trey Lance at QB moving forward, Garoppolo has been cast aside.

But, according to statistics and betting trends, the former Patriot is decidedly underrated. Whatever team snags Jimmy G this offseason could reap the benefit, and when it comes to your NFL betting next season, you can, too.

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Garoppolo Brings Betting Profits

Most Profitable NFL Quarterbacks Of The Last 5 Years
QuarterbackRecordProfits (For $100 bettors)
Ryan Tannehill38-23+$1,989.66
Marcus Mariota28-20+$1,563.5
Taysom Hill49-17+$1,557.46
Josh Allen42-25+$1,253.65
Nick Foles19-12+$1,154.74
Jimmy Garoppolo35-17+$1,011.03
Patrick Mahomes58-16+$954.05
Ryan Fitzpatrick15-24+$850.04
Alex Smith20-14+$660.59
Ben Roethlisberger42-24-1+$475.88

Looking at QB profitability is one way to gauge how teams have played, relative to expectations (or Vegas lines), with specific quarterbacks at the helm. In a significant 52-game sample, Garoppolo has been one of the most profitable quarterbacks in football over the last five years, netting +$1,011.03 for $100 bettors.

He’s been more profitable than Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and even Tom Brady, who guided New England to two NFL titles when Garoppolo was the backup QB. Even taking away the betting profits and just looking at the records, Garoppolo has posted the seventh-highest QB win percentage in football (minimum 50 games) during his time with the 49ers.

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Good QBs Win, Great QBs Cover

Not only has Garoppolo been one of the most profitable quarterbacks in the league straight up, he’s also been one of the best QBs against the spread in the last five years. With Garoppolo at the helm, the 49ers have gone 29-22-1 against the spread, good for a 56.9 percent win rate — the sixth-best in football (minimum 50 games). Without Garoppolo over the last five years, the 49ers are 15-20 against the spread (42.9%).

As much as 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan gets credit for San Francisco’s run of success the last few years, the team has performed much better with Jimmy G at QB than without him.

Jimmy G: More Than A Game Manager

Now does the fact that Garoppolo covers the spread more than Mahomes and has been more profitable make him better than the Kansas City QB? No chance.

However, he’s clearly performing above the general expectations of the NFL community and Vegas’ lines. Once a top QB prospect and an early draft pick, Garoppolo has now been lumped in with a group of NFL QBs like Alex Smith and Derek Carr — dubbed a “game manager.”

While the 49ers’ system produces easy throws, values the run game and helps quarterbacks complete passes at a high rate, Garoppolo is neither a system QB nor a game manager. This is a guy who passed for 53 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards during his final college season, in just 14 games.

Garoppolo led all of football in yards per completion and net yards per attempt last season, moving the ball down the field as successfully as anyone else in the league. The 49ers often ran the ball in the red zone, limiting Jimmy G’s touchdown opportunities, but when Garoppolo was allowed to throw, he succeeded. The 49ers QB posted a higher red-zone completion percentage than Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray.

Garoppolo has the arm talent, accuracy at distances, and a quick release to be a top NFL QB. He may not be mobile or dynamic like some of the other young stars like Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, but he can throw with the best of them.

Garoppolo Delivers On Props

Not only has Garoppolo helped his teams outperform expectations, he’s also flourished individually relative to his NFL prop bet lines.

While Garoppolo only covered his passing yards OVER/UNDER in five of 10 starts last year, he averaged 14 more yards per game than his average yardage prop (240.1). In the three starts where Garoppolo’s passing yards line dropped below 230, he hit the OVER every time.

No matter where Garoppolo lands next year, hammer his passing yards OVER (especially if the number is below 230) over at our best NFL betting sites:

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