Five of the six NFL conference title games over the past three seasons have turned out to be UNDER results for totals bettors at the sportsbooks as we take a look at this weekend's betting trends for the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game.
In the AFC the Colts will play on the road against the Patriots for the conference title on Sunday, with Indianapolis having gone 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against AFC East teams. Indianapolis is also 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in its last five games against New England, and 3-8 both SU and ATS in its last 11 road playoff games.
[ The best NFL underdog odds are often found at Sportsbook - if you are betting the Colts or the Packers, it might be a good idea to look there ]
The Patriots, favorites for Sunday, are 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites dating back to 2008, and 0-5 ATS in the AFC Championship Game since 2005. New England, however, is 17-1 SU and 12-6 ATS in its last 18 home games, and 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams from the AFC South.
The home team has won and covered in the four prior playoff meetings between the Colts and the Patriots, while the OVER has gone 6-0 in the last six games between Indianapolis and New England for totals bettors.
Over in the NFC the Seahawks will host the Packers on Sunday as they battle for a berth in the Super Bowl, with Green Bay just 1-8 both SU and ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog heading into the matchup against the favored Seahawks. Green Bay is also just 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996.
The Seahawks have won eight straight playoff games as favorites on the NFL odds, going 5-2-1 ATS in that span. Seattle also enters Sunday's matchup on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games, and they're 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games at CenturyLink Field. The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine games between the two teams.
As well, only five teams since 2004 have been favored by as many as seven points in a conference title game - three times by the Patriots and once each by the Colts and the Packers. The favorites went just 1-4 ATS in those five games.
Conference Championships NFL Betting Trends
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Packers and Seahawks have met twice in playoffs, home team won both times (2004, 2008) Packers 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996 Packers 1-8 SU & ATS last 9 games as road underdogs Packers 1-5 SU & ATS last 6 road games vs. NFC West Packers 1-3 ATS last 4 road games (2-2 SU) Packers 6-3 SU last 9 meetings with Seahawks (4-3-2 ATS) Seahawks have won eight straight as playoff favorites, 5-2-1 ATS Seahawks 7-0 SU last 7 games (6-0-1 ATS) Seahawks 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 home games vs. NFC North Seahawks 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 playoff games Seahawks 23-7 ATS last 30 home games (27-3 SU) OVER 6-3 in last 9 meetings OVER 4-0 in Green Bay’s last 4 road games vs. NFC West OVER 8-3 in Green Bay’s last 11 games as road underdog UNDER 3-0 in Green Bay’s last 3 road games UNDER 3-1 in Seattle’s last 4 home games OVER 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 home games vs. NFC North
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Home team has won and covered four prior playoff meetings of Colts and Pats Colts 0-6 SU last 6 road games vs. AFC East (2-4 ATS) Colts 0-5 SU last 5 meetings with Patriots (2-3 ATS) Colts 3-8 SU & ATS last 11 road playoff games Colts 3-7 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS) Patriots 0-5 ATS in conference championship round since 2005 (2-3 SU) Patriots 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008 Patriots 10-0 SU last 10 home games vs. AFC South (7-3 ATS) Patriots 17-1 SU last 18 home games (12-6 ATS) Patriots 4-10 ATS last 14 playoff games (7-7 SU) UNDER 10-3 in Indy’s last 13 road playoff games (6-1 L7) OVER 6-0 in last 6 meetings OVER 9-1 in Indy’s last 10 road games vs. AFC East (7-0 L7) OVER 6-0 in New England’s last 6 home games vs. AFC South OVER 11-3 in New England’s last 14 home games
After the first two weeks of the NFL playoffs leading up to Super Bowl XLVIII road teams are 4-4 SU and 5-2-1 ATS, while underdogs are 5-2-1 ATS, with three winning outright. Over the past four seasons in the conference championships, road teams are 6-2 ATS while underdogs are 4-4 ATS.
According to the lines at Sportsbook for Sunday's conference championships, the AFC's top-seeded Denver Broncos are -4.5 to second-seeded New England, down from the Sportsbook line of 6.5. In the NFC, top-seed Seattle is -3.5 to division-rival and defending conference champion San Francisco.
Looking at these games in-depth, beginning with the AFC Championship Game and the highly-anticipated showdown between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in Denver . . .
New England has won and covered five of its last six in this series, but the Patriots are mired in a 2-7 road ATS skid and a 3-9 spread slide in the playoffs. New England is also in on ATS win streaks of 7-2 as an underdog and a perfect 8-0 against AFC West teams. And though Denver is in on an 8-3 ATS win streak overall, it's also failed to cover seven of its last nine in the playoffs, and has lost five straight on the field and at the window against AFC East teams.
For totals lovers, the Broncos have stayed UNDER in four straight games, but the OVER has cashed in the last four times these two have played. The number is 55
In the NFC Championship Game, make note the Seahawks have covered eight of their last 10 when hosting the 49ers. The Seahawks have also covered six in a row when hosting a playoff game, and have won 21 of their last 24 SU when installed as the favorite. San Francisco has won three straight playoff games on the highway, and is in on winning streaks of 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against NFC West foes.
In regards to the total, which is 39, the Seahawks have stayed UNDER the last five times they were favored, while the UNDER has cashed in six of the last seven times they've played intradivision foes.
San Francisco +3.5 at Seattle, total 39.5
Niners have won three straight playoff road games Seahawks won six straight playoff home games Seahawks have played five straight UNDERs when favored Seahawks are 21-3 SU past 24 games as favorites UNDER is 6-1 past seven Seahawks games vs. NFC West foes 49ers won five straight vs. NFC West foes (4-1 ATS) Seattle is 8-2 ATS past 10 at home to San Francisco
New England +4.5 at Denver, total 55
Home team has won and covered three playoff meetings of these teams Past four meetings played OVER the total Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS past six vs Broncos Patriots are 2-7 ATS past nine road games Patriots are 7-2 ATS past nine games as underdogs Broncos have played four straight UNDERs Denver is 8-3 ATS past 11 games overall Broncos are 2-7 ATS past nine playoff games Patriots are 3-9 ATS past 12 playoff games Patriots won and covered eight straight vs AFC West teams Broncos on 0-5 SU and ATS run vs AFC East teams