Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5, O/U 46.5)
The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to Baltimore where they’ll face off with the division rival Ravens. Unanimous 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson will lead the 5-1 Ravens out of their bye in pursuit of a win with massive playoff implications with Pittsburgh sitting atop the AFC North at 6-0.
This is likely to be a classic AFC North grudge match, as both teams come in sporting top-tier defenses that feature extremely physical and aggressive styles. The teams sit atop the NFL in blitz rate with Baltimore (46.1%) leading the way and Pittsburgh (44.3%) right behind them.
There also shouldn’t be many surprises from either sideline considering it will be the 25th regular-season meeting between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh (Tomlin leads 13-11). Sportsbooks are anticipating a tight one in Baltimore as well, listing the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a modest total of 46.5 points.
Our model projects a final score of 23.9-18.6 in favor of Baltimore, and while we have a slight edge against the spread, our model is identifying an even larger position on the total in this game. With 42.5 projected points and a current OVER/UNDER sitting at 46.5, we have a strong edge on the UNDER in this matchup. Our model suggests a $127 wager on UNDER 46.5 for an average $100 bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NFL model was 129-75 ATS (63.2%) for +26.85 units and 117-98 (54.4%) on O/Us for +21.04 units in the 2019-20 season, producing a total profit of $4,789. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.
Why will the total go UNDER?
How to bet the spread in Steelers vs Ravens:
Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 23.9-18.6 in favor of the Ravens. With a 5.3-point projected margin of victory and a current spread of 3.5 points, we have a slight edge on the Ravens in this one. Our model suggests a $28 wager on BALTIMORE -3.5 for $100 average bettors.