Super Bowl Hangover Trends

Is the Super Bowl Hangover Real?

Is the Super Bowl hangover real? Does losing the big game stick with a team through to the next season? Or does the winning team start sluggish after an offseason of partying?

Below, I'll break down the realities of the 'Super Bowl hangover' and if the Kansas City Chiefs win in the big game last year carries anything over to this NFL season:

How Do Super Bowl Champions Do The Next Season?

Last 5 Super Bowl Winner Next Season Results
YearSuper Bowl ChampNext Season RecordNext Season ATS RecordWeek 1 Result
2022Kansas City Chiefs???
2021Los Angeles Rams5-126-9-210-31 (Loss)
2020Tampa Bay Buccaneers13-49-831-29 (Win)
2019Kansas City Chiefs14-27-934-20 (Win)
2018New England Patriots12-48-7-133-3 (Win)
2017Philadelphia Eagles9-76-9-118-12 (Win)

Over the last five seasons, the reigning Super Bowl Champs have been pretty effective in Week 1, posting a 4-1 record. They've also been largely solid in the season-long win department, except for the 2021 champion LA Rams.

Where the reigning Champions falter, is covering the spread during the season. Since 2017, the defending champs have managed to cover ATS in just 43.9% of contests.

Does Losing The Super Bowl Hurt The Next Year?

Last 5 Super Bowl Loser Next Season Results
YearSuper Bowl LoserNext Season RecordNext Season ATS RecordWeek 1 Result
2022Philadelphia Eagles???
2021Cincinnati Bengals12-412-420-23 (Loss)
2020Kansas City Chiefs12-58-933-29 (Win)
2019San Francisco 49ers6-107-920-24 (Loss)
2018Los Angeles Rams9-710-5-130-27 (Win)
2017New England Patriots11-59-727-20 (Win)

It almost seems like teams that lose the Super Bowl are even better than the ones that win the following season. That kind of makes sense, right? More motivation, no offseason partying.

The reigning Super Bowl losers won 62% of games the next year and covered the spread at a 58% clip, too. If you're looking for a team to tail in 2023, maybe it's the Eagles?

Super Bowl Winning QBs Start Strong

Even after an offseason of parades, boat parties, special events, and probably a few cocktails, the reigning Super Bowl champion quarterbacks don't start sluggish the following year. 

Matthew Stafford started his 2022 season with a dud last year, tossing three interceptions in a Rams loss, but he's the exception to the rule. Over the last four years (including Stafford's loss), the reigning champion QBs have averaged a 69% completion rate, 293 yards, and 2.75 passing touchdowns in their Week 1 game the following year.

The king of the hot start is Tom Brady. After his two most recent titles in 2018 and 2020, the now (allegedly) retired QB passed for 7 touchdowns and 720 yards in Week 1 the following seasons. Maybe the TB12 diet does work?

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