Is the Super Bowl hangover real? Does losing the big game stick with a team through to the next season? Or does the winning team prove to be an easy fade for bettors after an offseason of partying?
Below, I'll break down the realities of the 'Super Bowl hangover' and if the Kansas City Chiefs win in the big game last year carries anything over to the 2024 NFL season:
How Do Super Bowl Champions Do The Next Season?
| Year | Super Bowl Champ | Next Season Record | Next Season ATS Record | Week 1 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11-6 | 13-7-1 | 20-21 (Loss) |
| 2021 | Los Angeles Rams | 5-12 | 6-9-2 | 10-31 (Loss) |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13-4 | 9-8 | 31-29 (Win) |
| 2019 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14-2 | 7-9 | 34-20 (Win) |
| 2018 | New England Patriots | 12-4 | 8-7-1 | 33-3 (Win) |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | 9-7 | 6-9-1 | 18-12 (Win) |
The reigning Super Bowl champions have won four of the last six NFL season openers. However, the Chiefs and Rams have each been less than effective in Week 1 over the past two seasons.
As you might expect, Super Bowl champions have been solid in the season-long win department, barring the 2021 Los Angeles Rams, who experienced a ton of injuries.
Where the reigning champions falter, is covering the spread during the season. Since 2017, the defending champs have managed to cover ATS in just 43.9% of contests.
Remember, no team has ever won three straight Super Bowls. However, the Chiefs have made the big game in four of the past five years. Only the greatness of Tom Brady and Joe Burrow have defeated this dynastic team in the playoffs in the Patrick Mahomes era. And only Burrow remains on the football field.
The Chiefs aim to become the fourth team in NFL history to advance to three straight Super Bowls, joining the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.
NFL Kickoff Ravens vs Chiefs Week 1 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +3 (-110) | +132 | Over 46.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 (-110) | -156 | Under 46.5 (-110) |
Odds as of August 25
While the Chiefs have their warts, I can't see the back-to-back champs slowing down anytime soon. Andy Reid is in for the long haul as is Patrick Mahomes. With those two in the building, it's tough to envision Kansas City suddenly melting under the pressure this season. Plus, General Manager Brett Veach managed to add a plethora of speed to the Chiefs offense with the additions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.
But, with 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in the backfield with former 2000-yard rusher Derrick Henry, I like the value on the Ravens to avenge their AFC Championship loss in Week 1.
Keep in mind, Andy Reid is 24-15 ATS in his career with a least 12 days to prepare. While the Big Red-Mahomes combo is an outstanding 12-2 SU with an extra week of rest. Be sure to check out our NFL computer picks page for all of our NFL Week 1 bets.
Does Losing The Super Bowl Hurt The Next Year?
| Year | Super Bowl Loser | Next Season Record | Next Season ATS Record | Week 1 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | San Francisco 49ers | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11-7 | 7-9-2 | 25-20 (Win) |
| 2021 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 | 12-4 | 20-23 (Loss) |
| 2020 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12-5 | 8-9 | 33-29 (Win) |
| 2019 | San Francisco 49ers | 6-10 | 7-9 | 20-24 (Loss) |
| 2018 | Los Angeles Rams | 9-7 | 10-5-1 | 30-27 (Win) |
| 2017 | New England Patriots | 11-5 | 9-7 | 27-20 (Win) |
It almost seems like teams that lose the Super Bowl are even better than the ones that win the following season. That kind of makes sense, right? More motivation, no offseason partying.
The reigning Super Bowl losers won 62% of games the next year and covered the spread at a 58% clip, too. If you're looking for a team to tail in 2024, it just might be the San Francisco 49ers. Losers of two of the past five big games, Kyle Shanahan's squad has to be more motivated than ever to get back and finish the job.
Super Bowl Winning QBs Start Strong
Even after an offseason of parades, boat parties, special events, and probably a few cocktails, the reigning Super Bowl champion quarterbacks don't start sluggish the following year.
Patrick Mahomes was less than stellar in his 2023 debut. However, he posted a passer rating of 95.7 while tossing for 1,593 yards and 11 touchdowns across his first six games last season. Kansas City's first few weeks aren't easy. They'll welcome the Bengals in Week 2 after facing the Ravens, then visit the Falcons, Chargers and Saints. Maybe I lied, but road games in Atlanta and Los Angeles will be a challenge. Regardless, I'd be shocked to see Mahomes struggle as much as last season with a retooled offensive line and far more weapons in front of him.
The king of the hot start is Tom Brady. After his two most recent titles in 2018 and 2020, the now (allegedly) retired QB passed for 7 touchdowns and 720 yards in Week 1 the following seasons. Maybe the TB12 diet does work?
