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NFL Week 1 Betting Primer

Finally! Week 1 of the NFL season is here and the OddsShark Betting Primer is back to help you nail your picks this season. Also back is that greasy bookie who’s looking to take advantage of inexperienced bettors. He’s foaming at the mouth, envisioning getting rich off all of us this season, but here’s the truth — with proper preparation before making your bets, you can ensure that the bookie won’t just go bankrupt this season, but we can ruin his life after his family leaves him due to having such a miserable year.

Week 1 can be a bit tricky to figure out. Who got better during the offseason, who got worse, and who stayed the same? We really don’t know, so it’s important to rely on numbers that make sense. Trends such as the 49ers somehow going 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games in Week 1 are likely more coincidental than anything when you consider the turnover they’ve had at head coach and quarterback during that span. The Patriots going 12-1 SU in their last 13 Week 1 games is far from a coincidence, though, for obvious reasons. My suggestion is to ignore trends from previous seasons for teams like the 49ers who’ve had a constant influx of personnel, but trends for teams with long-standing head coach/QB combos are worthy of consideration.

One league-wide trend in recent seasons has seen underdogs get the better of favorites in Week 1. They went 9-5-2 ATS in the opening week last season. This has continued a trend that’s seen dogs go 26-19-3 ATS in Week 1 over the last three seasons and 43-33-4 ATS over the last five seasons.

Chiefs at Patriots
  • The Patriots are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six regular-season games on the road.
  • The Patriots are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games in Week 1.
  • Alex Smith is 9-0 SU in his career vs AFC East teams with 14 TDs and 0 INTs (regular season).
  • Tom Brady in TNF Games – 9-1 SU, 24 TDs and 2 INTs 113.9 QB rating. He’s thrown for three or more TDs in three straight TNF games.
  • The Chiefs are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road against the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games against AFC teams.
  • The Patriots allowed an NFL-low six rushing TDs last season.
Cardinals at Lions
  • The Cardinals are 7-0 SU in their last seven games against the Lions.
  • The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Cardinals are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cardinals' last 10 games on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Lions.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Cardinals' last 13 games against the Lions.
  • The Lions are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last seven games in the early afternoon.
Steelers at Browns
  • The Browns allowed the most passing TDs in 2016 — 36. The Steelers had the 4th most passing TDs — 33.
  • The Steelers are 24-3 SU in their last 27 games against the Browns. 17 of those wins are by 10 or more points.
  • The Browns are 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 1.
  • The Browns are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games starting at 1 p.m. ET.
  • The Browns are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Steelers' last 11 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Steelers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against their division.
  • The Steelers are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorite.
  • Antonio Brown has 100 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games against the Browns.
  • Le'Veon Bell has rushed for 100 or more yards in seven of his last nine games.
Colts at Rams
  • The Rams are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games in Week 1.
  • The Rams are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games in September.
  • The Colts scored 29.4 points per game on the road in 2016 – 2nd best in the NFL.
  • The Rams scored 12.7 points per game at home in 2016 – worst in the NFL.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Colts' last four games against the Rams.
  • The Rams are 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Colts' last 11 games on the West Coast.
  • The Colts are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games as road favorites.
Eagles at Redskins
  • In 2016, the Eagles allowed 10.4 more points in road games than at home.
  • The Eagles are 0-5 SU in their last five games against the Redskins.
  • The Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Eagles' last three games against the Redskins.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Redskins' last 10 games at home.
  • The Redskins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight 1 p.m. ET games.
  • The Eagles are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Eagles' last nine games against their division.
Falcons at Bears
  • The Falcons (34.1 PPG) averaged almost double the points that the Bears (17.4 PPG) did per game in 2016.
  • The Falcons had the NFL’s best road offense in 2016, scoring 32 points per game.
  • The Falcons are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games against the Bears.
  • The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bears.
  • The Bears are 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Falcons' last nine games against the Bears.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bears' last 10 games as home underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in September.
  • The Falcons are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • All of Jordan Howard’s rushing touchdowns in 2016 (six) came at home.
Jaguars at Texans
  • This game has the lowest total of the week — 39.5. The teams combined to score 37.8 PPG last season.
  • The Texans are 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against their division.
  • The Texans are 11-0 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
  • The two games these teams played vs each other last season were decided by a total of 4 points.
  • The Jaguars are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games starting at 1 p.m. ET.
  • The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last six games against the Texans.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Jaguars' last five games against the Texans.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Jaguars' last 10 games in September.
  • The Jaguars are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 1.
  • Lamar Miller has scored at least one rushing TD in four of his last five games at home.
Jets at Bills
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Bills' last 12 games.
  • The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 1.
  • The Jets are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets' last five games against the Bills.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Jets' last 11 games on the road.
  • 11 of LeSean McCoy's 13 rushing TDs in 2016 came at home.
Raiders at Titans
  • The Titans are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games starting at 1 p.m. ET.
  • The Raiders were 5-0 ATS in games starting at 1 p.m. ET in 2016.
  • The Raiders are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road against the Titans.
  • The Titans are 13-34 SU in their last 47 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Raiders' last 11 games.
  • The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • Against the Raiders last year, Marcus Mariotta had 0 TDs, 2 INTs and a 46.8 QB rating.
  • DeMarco Murray has scored at least one rushing TD in six of his last seven games at home.
Ravens at Bengals
  • The Ravens are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road against the Bengals.
  • Last season, the Ravens allowed 25.4 points per game on the road vs just 14.8 at home.
  • The Bengals are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals' last four games against their division.
  • The Ravens are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road.
  • The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Ravens' last five games against their division.
  • A.J. Green has scored at least one TD in five straight games vs the Ravens.
Seahawks at Packers
  • The Seahawks are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road against the Packers.
  • The Seahawks are 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 September road games.
  • Aaron Rodgers vs Seattle last season – 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 150.8 QB rating.
  • Russell Wilson vs Packers last season – 1 TD, 5 INTs, 43.7 QB rating.
  • The Seahawks averaged just 16.3 PPG in road games last season vs 28.1 PPG at home.
  • The Packers allowed 10.7 fewer points per game at home compared to the road.
  • The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Packers.
  • The Packers are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers' last seven games.
  • The Seahawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdog.
  • The Seahawks are 33-11 SU in their last 44 games in the late afternoon.
  • Randall Cobb has scored at least one receiving TD in five of his last six games at home.
Panthers at 49ers
  • The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when hosting an East Coast team.
  • The 49ers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games in Week 1.
  • The Panthers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the 49ers.
  • The Panthers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games against the 49ers.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Panthers' last 17 games against the 49ers.
  • The 49ers are 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Panthers' last nine games against the NFC West division.
  • The Panthers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Panthers allowed 28.4 points per game on the road in 2016 – 5th worst in NFL.
  • The 49ers allowed an NFL-high 25 rushing TDs in 2016.
Giants at Cowboys
  • Dallas averaged 26.6 points per game in 2016, but in two games vs the Giants they averaged just 13 PPG. 
  • In two games vs the Giants last season, Dez Bryant had just 2 catches for 18 yards.
  • Dak Prescott had a 58.6 QB rating vs the Giants last season – his worst vs any team.
  • Seven of the last eight games between the Giants and Cowboys in Dallas have gone OVER. The games had an average combined score of 59.37.
  • The Giants are 3-0 SU in their last three games against the Cowboys.
  • The Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Cowboys.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Giants' last nine games against the Cowboys.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Cowboys' last eight games in September.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Giants' last nine games.
  • The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games in Week 1.
  • The Giants scored an NFL-low six rushing TDs last season.
Saints at Vikings
  • The Vikings are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games.
  • The Saints have gone UNDER in 13 of their last 16 September road games.
  • The Saints are 4-0 SU in their last four games against the Vikings.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Saints' last eight games against the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings' last six games in September.
  • The Vikings are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games at home.
  • The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Saints' last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Drew Brees has a career 106.6 QB rating vs NFC North teams – his best vs any division.
    Chargers at Broncos
    • The Chargers are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road against the Broncos.
    • The Broncos are 33-7 SU in their last 40 games as home favorites.
    • The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on Monday.
    • The Chargers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
    • The Chargers are 2-6 SU in their last eight games at night.
    • The Broncos are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs the Chargers.
    • The Broncos allowed the fewest passing TDs last season — 13.

    For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news, check out our new podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check us out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

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