NFL Sack Leader Odds: Watt Favored To Three-Peat

In 1982, the NFL finally included sacks as an official stat. Michael Strahan (2001) and T.J. Watt (2021) share the single-season record with 22.5 sacks, though Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Coy Bacon is widely credited with having 26 back in 1976 before it was a recorded statistic.

Since 1982, sacks have become an integral stat in determining which player wins the Defensive Player of the Year Award. Last year, Watt won the award while leading the league with his record-tying sack total and Aaron Donald won the previous year after coming second in sacks.

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Online sportsbook Sportsbook has Watt listed with the best odds to lead the NFL in sacks again this season at +551, while Myles Garrett is trailing him at just +672.

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Odds as of August 16 at Sportsbook

NFL Sack Leader Odds: The Favorites

There’s a pretty good chance that one of T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa ends up leading the league in sacks.

They are probably the three best pure pass rushers in the league and have the ability to put up monster numbers if healthy.

Watt has no fewer than 13 sacks in each of his last four seasons, including a league-leading 22.5 last season and a league-leading 15 in 2020.

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Garrett is more of a traditional defensive end than standup rusher like Watt, but he had a career-high 16 sacks last season.

In Bosa’s two healthy seasons in the league, he has nine sacks (rookie year) and 15.5 sacks (last year). He will be a yearly threat to hit 20 sacks moving forward.

All three are solid bets, but we lean to Bosa among this trio due to the attractive odds.

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NFL Sack Leader Odds: Value Bets

Trey Hendrickson (+1865)

Only T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett have more sacks over the last two seasons than Hendrickson’s 27.5, and we expect he should be in the conversation for the league lead again this year.

After Hendrickson played in a backup role in New Orleans for his rookie contract, the Bengals signed him to a big deal before the 2020 season and his numbers exploded. In his prime and coming off his first Pro Bowl selection, a season of 14 to 16 sacks should put this former third-round pick in contention. 

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Maxx Crosby (+2094)

Why pay up for Chandler Jones when you can get his teammate for double the odds? Crosby hasn’t put up huge sack numbers in his three seasons with 10, 7 and 8. But last season his QB hits more than doubled from 13 to 30, tied for fourth in the league.

Crosby was getting to the QB more than anyone in the league outside the top three players in NFL sack leader odds – he just didn’t translate as many QB hits to sacks. If that happens this season, with Jones on the other side commanding attention, it could be a big sack total year for the 25-year-old.

Brian Burns (+3972)

Burns’ 18 sacks over the last two seasons is tied for ninth in the league, and we think this season could be the young star’s breakout campaign. Burns has put up sack totals of 7.5, 9 and 9 in his three seasons and he’s still only 24 years old.

This could be the year he takes a big leap, and +3972 is great value.

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NFL Sack Leader Odds Best Bet: Micah Parsons (+2452)

These odds feel like robbery for someone who was arguably the best defensive player in the league last season as a rookie. Parsons put up 13 sacks despite playing a good portion of his snaps as a standup cover linebacker instead of a pure pass rusher like most of the players on this list.

He also tied for fourth in the league with 30 QB hits (behind only Bosa, Garrett and Watt) despite his role.

At just 23 years old, I see Defensive Player of the Year honors in Parsons’ future, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if that starts this year. If the Cowboys decide to let Parsons rush more often, the sky is the limit in terms of sacks and production. This is a steal in NFL sack leader odds.