The Pick 6: Week 10

A huge parlay hit led us to a nice little chunk of profit in Week 9 and I’m feeling prettay, prettay good heading into Week 10.

If you’re just stumbling onto this now, don’t worry, we’ve still got eight more weeks plus playoffs to bankrupt our bookies.

Let’s get to it.

Seattle -6 (-115)

The Stat: The Seahawks are 17-3-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS in Russell Wilson’s 21 career games in prime time and they’re 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight after losing as a favorite.

Earl Thomas is likely out for this one but I don’t care. The Cardinals are just bad at football and they’ve proved it every time they’ve played a half decent team this season. The combined record of teams they’ve beaten this season is 5-30 and they’ve got a -90 point differential in their four losses.

The Seahawks have been incredibly inconsistent but this is a game they absolutely must win. I think they do that emphatically so I’m picking them to cover the spread on Thursday.

Blair Walsh to not Miss a Field Goal or XP against the Cardinals (-200)

The Stat: Walsh is 97.3 percent on XPs and 85 percent on field goals for his career when kicking inside a dome. Both of those numbers are substantially higher than when he kicks outdoors.

He’s also never missed a kick on Thursday. Granted, he’s only been called upon 15 times in mid-week contests but it’s not an insignificant factor for a kicker who seems to be deep inside his own head.

Like the rest of the Seahawks, I think the Blair Walsh Project redeems himself on TNF and I expect him to make every kick he takes after an 0/3 performance on Sunday that ended a streak in which the former Viking had made 12 of his previous 13 field-goal attempts.

Jaguars SU and UNDER 41 (+190)

The Stat: The Jaguars and Chargers have combined for 5 OVERs in their last 6 games and the Jags are No. 1 in net yards per play over their last three games.

Are the Jags good? They sure look like it. Winners of three of their last four, the Jags lead the league in a few really important categories and they might just have the best defense in the NFL.

The Chargers offense has been – if nothing else – underwhelming all season and they’ve yet to run into a defense as good as the one they’ll face on Sunday. Jags win a low-scoring grinder on the back of their stonewall defensive line.

Browns +18 and Vikings +5 teaser (-120)

The Stat: Teams that have taken their bye week after playing in London are 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS their next game the last three seasons.

Betting on the Browns is never fun but this stat has given me more faith than I’m used to having in them. Adding to my confidence is the line for Cleveland’s game that will see the Lions favored by 12. They’ve only been chalk that big twice in franchise history and it feels like too many points for a team that’s as bad in the red zone as Detroit.

Jets SU and UNDER 43.5 (+230)

The Stat: The Buccaneers are 28th in rushing and they’ll be without Jameis Winston and Mike Evans on Sunday.  

This is pretty self-explanatory. I like the Jets more than the public does and the Bucs are nothing without their No. 1 quarterback and best receiver. Not many points are getting scored in this one.

Patriots -7.5 (-115)

The Stat: The Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.

The perception of Denver being a tough place to play has been shattered this season and the Patriots are beginning to round into form. This was one of the easiest plays on the board and I suspect it will be one of the most popular Super Contest picks this week.

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