A successful Turkey Day helped me stuff my pockets and I’m now 12-5-1 (up $810 with $100 bets) over my last three Pick 6 columns.
Because I’m a nice guy, I’ve put together another Pick 6 for the rest of the Week 12 games. Here’s hoping the winners keep rolling in.
The Pick: Jets +5.5 (-110)
The Stat: Panthers 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites and the Jets have covered 6 straight as home underdogs.
Not only have the Jets been covering at home, they’ve been winning straight up too. I don’t necessarily love the Jets but the Panthers are far too inconsistent to take at this number against a team that’s been good (in its own right) on home turf.
If I wake up feeling cheeky and still a little buzzed from my Saturday night I may even take the Jets straight up. Screw it, life is short.
The Pick: 6-point teaser Eagles -8, Patriots -11, Steelers -8 (+150)
The Stat: The Eagles are the best ATS team in the NFL, Miami has lost eight straight in New England by an average of 18.25 points and the Steelers are on a nine-game winning streak in prime-time football games, beating their opponents by an average of 15 points.
These are all the biggest favorites on the board so it’s probably a sucker’s bet but hey, let’s be real, we’re all just doing this for a bit of fun, right? My only hope is that the Eagles and Pats come through so I’ve got something on the line for the SNF game because if I don’t, there’s a serious chance that I make an ugly degenerate bet to get some action.
The Pick: Raiders -5 (-105)
The Stat: Since Peyton Manning retired, the Broncos are 1-4 SU and ATS in games after changing their starting quarterback.
Paxton Lynch is the next man up for the Broncos but based on the trends, he’s also going to be the next man down for the Broncos.
The Raiders have been a massive disappointment this year but I have faith they can win and cover at home to keep their dimming playoff hopes alive.
The Pick: Bengals -8 (-105)
The Stat: The Bengals are playing the Browns this week.
Enough said? The Browns are 2-8 ATS on the year and big favorites have been covering at an alarming rate since Week 7. I don’t love the Bengals by any stretch and I won’t be watching a single second of this poop tornado but I will gladly make some free money by fading the Browns.
The Pick: Buccaneers-Falcons UNDER 49 (-115)
The Stat: The Falcons have posted three straight UNDERs at home and those games have had an average of just 37 points.
I’ve all but given up on this Falcons offense. Sure, they’ve looked marginally better the last two weeks, but there’s still something way off. The Atlantans haven’t been able to adjust to life in their fancy new stadium yet either and these NFC South battles are never the shootouts we expect them to be.
Jameis Winston is still out for the Bucs and with Ryan Fitzpatrick still at the controls for Tampa, I’ll take UNDER all day. An utter lack of a running game will make the Bucs one dimensional against a good pass rush and I don’t see that working out well Dirk Koetter’s crew.
Falcons win 27-10.
The Pick: Jaguars SU and JAC-ARI UNDER 38 Parlay (+170)
The Stat: The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 8.8 points per game on the road this season.
This Jags team has been so fun to bet. Their games always seem to come down to some weird play to give them the cover, though, so I’ll just take them straight up but you’ve got to be joking me if you think this game is going OVER willingly.
All things considered, both teams should be running the ball more than 60 percent of the time in this one and with that being fairly obvious, both defenses should be stacking the box.
I foresee a lot of three-and-outs and turnovers here and bookmakers agree. They set this line as low as they did for a reason.
This column is powered by stats and trends provided by the NFL Betting Primer.
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