The Pick 6: Week 14

Things are getting packed at the top of the NFC and with two matchups this Sunday that pit four of the six teams currently in the conference's playoff picture against each other, we're in for a banger.

The only thing that could make this weekend of football better is a full wallet. That's where I come in. Here are my six favorite plays for the Week 14 NFL slate.

The Pick: Vikings -3 (EVEN)

The Stat: The Vikings are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 games vs the NFC South.

This one won’t be easy but everything I’ve dug up is pointing to the Vikes and that defense has been borderline impenetrable against some truly great attacks. This run is going to stop eventually but Minnesota really needs to win on Sunday to lock up the No. 1 seed.

I’d feel comfortable tossing this one with a teaser if you think the Cats keep it close on Sunday.

The Pick: 6-point teaser with Browns +9.5, Chargers Pick’em, Seahawks +9 (+150)

The Stat: The Packers have averaged 17 points per game with Brett Hundley under center. Tthe Chargers are averaging 33.7 points over their last three games and the Redskins are allowing 27.3 over that same span. The Jaguars are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games against the NFC West.

Another teaser hit last week has me really feeling myself. I know it seems crazy to include the Browns here but nine-and-a-half points seems like an awful lot for the Packers to cover considering how bad they’ve been offensively with the pride of UCLA calling the signals for them.

The Pick: Keenan Allen to record 10 or more receptions, 100 or more receiving yards and at least one touchdown vs the Redskins (+500)

The Stat: Allen has 41 targets over his last three games.

Being one of the best receivers in the NFL playing for the hottest team in the league has its perks and Keenan Allen has been reaping them, collecting 33 receptions for 436 yards and four touchdowns during the Chargers’ three-game win streak.

Rivers has been looking for Allen on every single passing down the last three weeks and I’m gambling on that to continue this week against the Redskins.

The Pick: Rams -2 (-105)

The Stat: The Eagles have played just three games against teams over .500 this season. They’re 1-2 SU and ATS in those games.

What a game. Full discretion, I don’t really love either side here but I need action in this one like Steve Carell in the 40-Year-Old Virgin. I’m a recreational bettor first and as a neutral, a little wager is a perfect way to throw some heat into this already spicy matchup.

The Pick: Giants +4.5 (-110)

The Stat: ELI IS BACK.

I think the Giants are winning this game straight up. Eli has a point to prove after being benched by the recently deceased Ben McAdoo and the public is absolutely HAMMERING the Cowboys.

This could be Eli’s last ever game against Dallas as a G-Man, a swansong of sorts, and he’s not going to want to go out on a loss to a team he’s played so frequently during his suddenly sour time in the Big Apple.  

The Pick: Patriots -11 (-110)

The Stat: The Patriots are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against the Dolphins. Eight of them were by 14 or more points.

They’re also 8-0 against the spread in their last eight without Rob Gronkowski. I’m not saying the Patriots are better without Gronk, but the market tends to overreact when No. 87 misses time and there’s no other team that evokes the next-man-up mentality like New England.

Belichick and the Pats have now covered six games in a row and while they’ve had their issues in Miami, their improved defense should help them easily win this one by a couple of scores.

This column is powered by stats and trends provided by the NFL Betting Primer.

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