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The Pick 6: Week 15

Week 15 is important for so many reasons. It has multiple marquee matchups, it’s the second last week of real regular season football but most importantly, it has games on Saturday.

Kind of an evil move from the NFL with Christmas right around the corner but I respect the hustle and I’ll most definitely be watching. Now, let’s make some money so you can pay off that X-Mas credit card bill.

The Pick: 6-point teaser with Chiefs +6, Saints -10, Eagles -1.5 (+150)

The Stats: The Chargers are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games against the Chiefs, the Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against the Giants and the Saints playing against Bryce Petty.

We’re on a crazy run with teasers right now, hitting three teamers in each of the last three weeks and I have another one dialed up that I think is as good as gold – don’t overthink it.

The Pick: Nick Foles UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-110)

The Stat: Foles has thrown just 9 picks in 15 road games as an Eagle.

He’s also not going to have to throw it very often on Sunday. The Giants have just about the worst rush defense in the NFL and Philly averages a whopping 143 yards on the ground per game.

I expect Foles to be used sparingly in this one as the Eagles won’t want to put another quarterback at risk right before the playoffs and I have enough faith in Foles’ ability to keep it out of the Giants' hands when he is called upon to bet this prop.

The Pick: Panthers -2.5 (EVEN)

The Stat: Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone 2 months ago.

Is A-Rod going to re-break his surgically repaired clavicle after one hit from the team tied for the third most sacks in the NFL? I don’t know but I’m scared enough for the guy to bet against him.

I also don’t think the Packers defense is good enough to stop the Panthers from scoring at will and it’s probably going to take a vintage performance from Rodgers if Green Bay is going to keep up.

This is probably my favorite bet on the board.

The Pick: Ravens -7 (-110)

The Stat: The Super Computer is 14-1 ATS this season when picking favorites that closed at either -6.5 or -7.

I actually kind of like the Browns to cover this spread but the computer has been an impossible fade in this spot. Whenever I see a stat like this that lets me bet against Cleveland, I hop all over it. 9-0 Ravens with three Justin Tucker field goals?

The Pick: Bengals vs Vikings OVER 42 (-110)

The Stat: The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Vikings last 7 games.

You wouldn’t look at the Vikings as a strong OVER bet but the numbers tell a different story. Their offense has been incredibly efficient since Case Keenum has come into his own and the Bengals defense they’ll meet on Sunday is a shell of it what it was earlier this season.

42 is a really low number that I’m expecting the Vikes to challenge on their own with a first-round playoff bye up for grabs.

The Pick: Patriots -3 (-105)

The Stat: During the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS vs the Steelers.

They’re also 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six games after a loss. You’re kidding yourself if you think the Patriots are losing this one against a Steelers team they’ve owned for a long time.

I’m also not yet sold on Pittsburgh and I'm ready to poke some holes in an inflated 11-2 record. The Steelers have won a lot of games ugly this year and that’s exactly the kind of game they don’t win against New England.

Give me Bill Belichick in a matchup with Mike Tomlin every day and twice on Sundays.


This Column is powered by stats and trends provided by the NFL Betting Primer.

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