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The Pick 6: Week 16

Over the last four weeks, the Pick 6 has been performing phenomenally as I’ve really settled into a nice little groove. There are just two more weeks to make hay before the playoffs so let’s get some more winners while the sun is shining.

A quick disclaimer before we get going, though: I’d had a couple of eggnogs when I made these picks. Back them at your own risk.

The Pick: Cowboys -5 (-110)

The Stat: The Cowboys are 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS this season when Sean Lee has played.

Not only is this my favorite play of the week, it’s my favorite play of the season. Seattle came completely undone against the Rams last week and they won’t be getting a Christmas break against the Cowboys.

I expect Dallas to roll over a Seahawks side that’s held together with scotch tape and popsicle sticks on the back of a freshly activated Ezekiel Elliott. See below. 

The Pick: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards (-200)

The Stat: The Seahawks have given up 400 total rushing yards in their last two games. 

This is easy. Zeke has so much going for him this week it’s not even fair. He’s had six weeks off and according to those in the know, he looks better than when his suspension was made official. Yikes.

The Seahawks have been getting destroyed by the rush the last few weeks and on Sunday they’ll have the pleasure of facing a ground game that managed to break 100 yards in five of its six games without Elliott.

Did I mention the bet Zeke has with Eric Dickerson? Elliott is going to be a motivated man this weekend and I’m not betting against him.

The Pick: Falcons +6 (-110)

The Stat: The favored team is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.

Six points? Come on. That’s far too many for a matchup of this caliber. I tend to think the books are compensating for the bashing they took from favorites last week and this line is a perfect example.

This is one of those coin-flip games that I can see settled by a field goal either way. It’s also shaping up to be the most entertaining game of the weekend so I recommend having some action on it.

The Pick: Browns SU (+230)

The Stat: The Bears are 0-6 SU as a favorite during the John Fox coaching regime.

Yeah, I’m starting to feel the eggnog. That said, I don’t hate this play given how historically bad John Fox and the Bears have been in this exact situation.

I’ll also say that I have a +1000 bet on the Browns to go 0-16 so this is a bit of a hedge but I think it’s a smart one. Flash Gordon to the rescue.

The Pick: Eagles -9 (-105)

The Stat: The Eagles average 35 points per game at home. The Raiders average 15.7 points per game on the road.

This game has blowout written all across the bow of it. The Raiders, all but eliminated from the playoffs, are a broken team with very little fight and I think the Eagles put them out of their misery on Christmas Day in emphatic fashion.

Break out the fireworks and get into the hard stuff, Philly, this is going to be a fun one.

The Pick: 49ers +4.5 (-110)


Don’t get me wrong, I don’t feel great about this against the Jaguars considering they’ve been shutting down every quarterback in the NFL this year but I’m starting to think this Garoppolo character is the second coming.

We all need a Christmas miracle to give us that rush of spirit we used to feel as kids so why can’t this be it? 

This column is powered by stats and trends provided by the NFL Betting Primer.

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